UEFA Nations League, round 5, League B, group 1 · Friday, 13 November, 22:45 (UTC+3) · Stadion Stožice

Slovenia — Switzerland

Model prediction for 13 November

Slovenia16%

Draw26%

Switzerland57%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Switzerland are clear favourites: 57% against 16% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 44%.

Why

National-team Elo: Slovenia 1718, Switzerland 1975 — Switzerland clearly rated higher.

Facts

League table: Slovenia — No. 2, 7 pts; Switzerland — No. 1, 12 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
Last 3 meetings: Slovenia 0 wins, Switzerland 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Slovenia — Switzerland What is xG?		0.8–1.6
Slovenia not to lose		43%
Switzerland not to lose		84%
No draw		74%
Both teams to score: yes		44%
Both teams to score: no		56%
Total over 2.5		42%
Total under 2.5		58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Slovenia
Slovenia goals
Switzerland goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Slovenia	Switzerland
Goals scored per match	1.1	2.1
Goals conceded per match	1.2	0.7
xG per match	0.63	1.64
Opponents’ xG	0.74	0.71
Shots	11.0	15.3
On target	3.3	6.3
Corners	5.1	5.1
Cards	2.1	0.8
Possession, %	46	58

Averages per match: Slovenia — the last 10, Switzerland — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Slovenia

06.10away · Scotland2:1
03.10away · Switzerland1:2
29.09North Macedonia2:0
26.09Scotland0:0
07.06away · Croatia1:2

Switzerland

06.10North Macedonia3:0
03.10Slovenia2:1
29.09away · Scotland3:0
26.09away · North Macedonia3:0
12.07away · Argentina1:3

Head to head

03.10.2026Switzerland — Slovenia2:1
13.10.2025Slovenia — Switzerland0:0
08.09.2025Switzerland — Slovenia3:0

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion to the league above	Switzerland	4	4	0	0	11–1	+10	12
2, Promotion play-offs	Slovenia	4	2	1	1	5–3	+2	7
3	Scotland	4	1	1	2	3–5	-2	4
4, Relegation play-off	North Macedonia	4	0	0	4	0–10	-10	0

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

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2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
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22:45
SerbiaGermanypreliminary
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22:45
ScotlandNorth Macedoniapreliminary
652213
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:45
SlovakiaFaroe Islandspreliminary
72208
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.5
22:45
BulgariaIcelandpreliminary
212652
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
22:45
LuxembourgEstoniapreliminary
413128
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.1
22:45
AndorraGibraltarpreliminary
413624
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →