UEFA Nations League, round 5, League B, group 1 · Friday, 13 November, 22:45 (UTC+3) · Hampden Park

Scotland — North Macedonia

Model prediction for 13 November

Scotland65%

Draw22%

North Macedonia13%

Model estimate at 18:34 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Scotland are clear favourites: 65% against 13% for the opponent, draw 22%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 47%.

Why

National-team Elo: Scotland 1718, North Macedonia 1533 — Scotland clearly rated higher.

Facts

League table: Scotland — No. 3, 4 pts; North Macedonia — No. 4, 0 pts. A gap of 4 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Scotland — North Macedonia What is xG?		1.9–0.8
Scotland not to lose		87%
North Macedonia not to lose		35%
No draw		78%
Both teams to score: yes		47%
Both teams to score: no		53%
Total over 2.5		51%
Total under 2.5		49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Scotland
Scotland goals
North Macedonia goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Scotland	North Macedonia
Goals scored per match	1.2	0.2
Goals conceded per match	1.1	2.6
xG per match	1.02	0.40
Opponents’ xG	1.03	1.66
Shots	13.7	6.4
On target	5.1	1.4
Corners	4.9	2.2
Cards	1.5	2.1
Possession, %	48	43

Averages per match: Scotland — the last 10, North Macedonia — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Scotland

06.10Slovenia1:2
03.10away · North Macedonia2:0
29.09Switzerland0:3
26.09away · Slovenia0:0
25.06Brazil0:3

North Macedonia

06.10away · Switzerland0:3
03.10Scotland0:2
29.09away · Slovenia0:2
26.09Switzerland0:3
01.06away · Turkiye0:4

Head to head

03.10.2026North Macedonia — Scotland0:2

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion to the league above	Switzerland	4	4	0	0	11–1	+10	12
2, Promotion play-offs	Slovenia	4	2	1	1	5–3	+2	7
3	Scotland	4	1	1	2	3–5	-2	4
4, Relegation play-off	North Macedonia	4	0	0	4	0–10	-10	0

Season 2026/27

Full table

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This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →