UEFA Nations League, round 5, League A, group 2 · Friday, 13 November, 22:45 (UTC+3) · Johan Cruijff ArenA

Netherlands — Greece

Model prediction for 13 November

Netherlands61%

Draw23%

Greece15%

Model estimate at 00:24 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Netherlands are clear favourites: 61% against 15% for the opponent, draw 23%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

National-team Elo: Netherlands 1974, Greece 1804 — Netherlands clearly rated higher.

Facts

League table: Netherlands — No. 1, 8 pts; Greece — No. 2, 8 pts.
Last 3 meetings: Netherlands 2 wins, Greece 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Netherlands — Greece What is xG?		1.8–0.8
Netherlands not to lose		85%
Greece not to lose		39%
No draw		77%
Both teams to score: yes		48%
Both teams to score: no		52%
Total over 2.5		49%
Total under 2.5		51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Netherlands
Netherlands goals
Greece goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Netherlands	Greece
Goals scored per match	2.0	1.0
Goals conceded per match	1.2	0.9
xG per match	1.53	0.76
Opponents’ xG	0.90	0.80
Shots	16.6	12.8
On target	6.2	3.9
Corners	5.7	4.8
Cards	1.1	1.7
Possession, %	59	47

Averages per match: Netherlands — the last 10, Greece — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Netherlands

04.10Serbia2:1
01.10away · Greece2:2
27.09away · Serbia2:1
24.09Germany1:1
30.06Morocco1:1

Greece

04.10Germany0:0
01.10Netherlands2:2
27.09away · Germany1:0
24.09away · Serbia2:1
07.06Italy0:1

Head to head

01.10.2026Greece — Netherlands2:2
16.10.2023Greece — Netherlands0:1
07.09.2023Netherlands — Greece3:0

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Quarter-finals	Netherlands	4	2	2	0	7–5	+2	8
2, Quarter-finals	Greece	4	2	2	0	5–3	+2	8
3	Germany	4	1	2	1	3–2	+1	5
4, Relegation play-off	Serbia	4	0	0	4	3–8	-5	0

Season 2026/27

Full table

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This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →