UEFA Nations League, round 5, League C, group 3 · Friday, 13 November, 20:00 (UTC+3) · Stadionul Zimbru

Moldova — Kazakhstan

Model prediction for 13 November

Moldova30%

Draw28%

Kazakhstan42%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Kazakhstan are slightly stronger: 42% against 30%, draw 28%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

National-team Elo: Moldova 1288, Kazakhstan 1387 — Kazakhstan rated higher.

Facts

League table: Moldova — No. 3, 4 pts; Kazakhstan — No. 4, 2 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Last 4 meetings: Moldova 2 wins, Kazakhstan 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Moldova — Kazakhstan What is xG?		1.1–1.3
Moldova not to lose		58%
Kazakhstan not to lose		70%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		50%
Both teams to score: no		50%
Total over 2.5		44%
Total under 2.5		56%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Moldova
Moldova goals
Kazakhstan goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Moldova	Kazakhstan
Goals scored per match	0.7	1.5
Goals conceded per match	2.1	1.5
xG per match	0.86	1.06
Opponents’ xG	1.82	1.26
Shots	12.3	14.1
On target	3.4	3.9
Corners	4.3	5.4
Cards	1.7	3.3
Possession, %	39	47

Averages per match: Moldova — the last 7, Kazakhstan — the last 8 matches in all competitions.

Form

Moldova

06.10Slovakia0:4
02.10away · Kazakhstan2:1
29.09Faroe Islands1:1
26.09away · Slovakia0:2
09.06away · Armenia1:1

Kazakhstan

06.10Faroe Islands2:2
02.10Moldova1:2
29.09away · Slovakia1:2
26.09away · Faroe Islands1:1
09.06away · Hungary1:3

Head to head

02.10.2026Kazakhstan — Moldova1:2
29.03.2022Kazakhstan — Moldova0:1
24.03.2022Moldova — Kazakhstan1:2
21.02.2019Kazakhstan — Moldova1:0

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion to the league above	Slovakia	4	3	1	0	9–2	+7	10
2, Promotion play-offs	Faroe Islands	4	0	4	0	5–5	0	4
3	Moldova	4	1	1	2	3–8	-5	4
4	Kazakhstan	4	0	2	2	5–7	-2	2

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

22:45
NetherlandsGreecepreliminary
612315
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
22:45
SerbiaGermanypreliminary
162163
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.5
22:45
ScotlandNorth Macedoniapreliminary
652213
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:45
SloveniaSwitzerlandpreliminary
162657
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
22:45
SlovakiaFaroe Islandspreliminary
72208
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.5
22:45
BulgariaIcelandpreliminary
212652
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
22:45
LuxembourgEstoniapreliminary
413128
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.1
22:45
AndorraGibraltarpreliminary
413624
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →