UEFA Nations League, round 5, League C, group 4 · Friday, 13 November, 22:45 (UTC+3) · Hristo Botev Stadium

Bulgaria — Iceland

Model prediction for 13 November

Bulgaria21%

Draw26%

Iceland52%

Model estimate at 23:28 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Iceland are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

National-team Elo: Bulgaria 1450, Iceland 1597 — Iceland clearly rated higher.

Facts

League table: Bulgaria — No. 3, 4 pts; Iceland — No. 1, 8 pts. A gap of 4 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bulgaria — Iceland What is xG?		0.9–1.6
Bulgaria not to lose		48%
Iceland not to lose		79%
No draw		74%
Both teams to score: yes		50%
Both teams to score: no		50%
Total over 2.5		47%
Total under 2.5		53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Bulgaria
Bulgaria goals
Iceland goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Bulgaria	Iceland
Goals scored per match	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded per match	2.3	1.4
xG per match	0.77	0.81
Opponents’ xG	2.07	0.55
Shots	8.6	9.1
On target	3.0	3.0
Corners	3.4	4.1
Cards	2.0	2.1
Possession, %	36	49

Averages per match: Bulgaria — the last 8, Iceland — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Bulgaria

06.10away · Luxembourg2:0
03.10away · Iceland0:3
29.09Estonia0:0
26.09Luxembourg1:2
05.06away · Moldova2:2

Iceland

06.10away · Estonia0:0
03.10Bulgaria3:0
29.09away · Luxembourg3:0
26.09Estonia1:1
10.06away · Argentina0:3

Head to head

03.10.2026Iceland — Bulgaria3:0

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion to the league above	Iceland	4	2	2	0	7–1	+6	8
2, Promotion play-offs	Estonia	4	1	3	0	2–1	+1	6
3	Bulgaria	4	1	1	2	3–5	-2	4
4	Luxembourg	4	1	0	3	2–7	-5	3

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

20:00
MoldovaKazakhstanpreliminary
302842
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
22:45
NetherlandsGreecepreliminary
612315
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
22:45
SerbiaGermanypreliminary
162163
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.5
22:45
ScotlandNorth Macedoniapreliminary
652213
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:45
SloveniaSwitzerlandpreliminary
162657
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
22:45
SlovakiaFaroe Islandspreliminary
72208
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.5
22:45
LuxembourgEstoniapreliminary
413128
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.1
22:45
AndorraGibraltarpreliminary
413624
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →