UEFA Nations League, round 5, League C, group 3 · Friday, 13 November, 22:45 (UTC+3) · Košická Futbalová Aréna

Slovakia — Faroe Islands

Model prediction for 13 November

Slovakia72%

Draw20%

Faroe Islands8%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Slovakia are clear favourites: 72% against 8% for the opponent, draw 20%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 39%.

Why

National-team Elo: Slovakia 1678, Faroe Islands 1397 — Slovakia clearly rated higher.

Facts

League table: Slovakia — No. 1, 10 pts; Faroe Islands — No. 2, 4 pts. A gap of 6 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Slovakia — Faroe Islands What is xG?		2.0–0.6
Slovakia not to lose		92%
Faroe Islands not to lose		28%
No draw		80%
Both teams to score: yes		39%
Both teams to score: no		61%
Total over 2.5		47%
Total under 2.5		53%

181 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Slovakia
Slovakia goals
Faroe Islands goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Slovakia	Faroe Islands
Goals scored per match	1.7	1.7
Goals conceded per match	1.6	1.3
xG per match	1.15	1.17
Opponents’ xG	1.07	1.44
Shots	14.0	10.3
On target	4.2	4.1
Corners	5.6	4.1
Cards	0.9	1.6
Possession, %	58	34

Averages per match: Slovakia — the last 9, Faroe Islands — the last 7 matches in all competitions.

Form

Slovakia

06.10away · Moldova4:0
02.10away · Faroe Islands1:1
29.09Kazakhstan2:1
26.09Moldova2:0
05.06Montenegro2:2

Faroe Islands

06.10away · Kazakhstan2:2
02.10Slovakia1:1
29.09away · Moldova1:1
26.09Kazakhstan1:1
09.06away · Latvia1:0

Head to head

02.10.2026Faroe Islands — Slovakia1:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion to the league above	Slovakia	4	3	1	0	9–2	+7	10
2, Promotion play-offs	Faroe Islands	4	0	4	0	5–5	0	4
3	Moldova	4	1	1	2	3–8	-5	4
4	Kazakhstan	4	0	2	2	5–7	-2	2

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

20:00
MoldovaKazakhstanpreliminary
302842
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
22:45
NetherlandsGreecepreliminary
612315
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
22:45
SerbiaGermanypreliminary
162163
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.5
22:45
ScotlandNorth Macedoniapreliminary
652213
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:45
SloveniaSwitzerlandpreliminary
162657
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
22:45
BulgariaIcelandpreliminary
212652
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
22:45
LuxembourgEstoniapreliminary
413128
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.1
22:45
AndorraGibraltarpreliminary
413624
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →