UEFA Nations League, round 5, League C, group 4 · Friday, 13 November, (UTC+3) · Stade de Luxembourg
Luxembourg — Estonia
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 13 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Luxembourg are slightly stronger: 41% against 28%, draw 31%.
The model expects few goals: 2.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 34%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Luxembourg 1383, Estonia 1406 — the teams are almost level on rating.
Facts
- League table: Luxembourg — No. 4, 3 pts; Estonia — No. 2, 6 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Luxembourg — Estonia What is xG? | 1.2–0.9 | |
| Luxembourg not to lose | 72% | |
| Estonia not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 34% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 66% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Luxembourg
- Luxembourg goals
- Estonia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Luxembourg | Estonia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xG per match | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.25 | 1.24 |
| Shots | 10.1 | 9.4 |
| On target | 3.2 | 3.9 |
| Corners | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| Cards | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 54 | 42 |
Form
- 06.10Bulgaria0:2
- 03.10away · Estonia0:1
- 29.09Iceland0:3
- 26.09away · Bulgaria2:1
- 06.06away · Albania1:0
- 06.10Iceland0:0
- 03.10Luxembourg1:0
- 29.09away · Bulgaria0:0
- 26.09away · Iceland1:1
- 09.06Lithuania1:0
Head to head
- 03.10.2026Estonia — Luxembourg1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Iceland | 4 | 2 | +6 | 8 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Estonia | 4 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | -5 | 3 |
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- MoldovaKazakhstanpreliminary3028422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
- NetherlandsGreecepreliminary6123151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- SerbiaGermanypreliminary1621632The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.5
- ScotlandNorth Macedoniapreliminary6522131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- SloveniaSwitzerlandpreliminary1626572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
- SlovakiaFaroe Islandspreliminary722081The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.5
- BulgariaIcelandpreliminary2126522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
- AndorraGibraltarpreliminary413624XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →