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UEFA Champions League, round 5 · Tuesday, 24 November, (UTC+3)

Arsenal — Borussia Dortmund

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Model prediction for 24 November

Arsenal62%
Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund17%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Arsenal are clear favourites: 62% against 17% for the opponent, draw 21%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • Arsenal's starting XI is worth €638m, Borussia Dortmund's €350m.
  • By the strength ratings Arsenal are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • League table: Arsenal — No. 9, 7 pts; Borussia Dortmund — No. 16, 6 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Arsenal: unbeaten in 5; Borussia Dortmund: unbeaten in 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Arsenal — Borussia Dortmund What is xG?2.1–1.0
Arsenal not to lose83%
Borussia Dortmund not to lose38%
No draw79%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.559%
Total under 2.541%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Arsenal
  • Arsenal goals
  • Borussia Dortmund goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatArsenalBorussia Dortmund
Goals scored per match1.81.7
Goals conceded per match0.91.0
xG per match1.641.77
Opponents’ xG1.021.42
Shots14.215.1
On target4.75.5
Corners5.16.9
Cards1.51.7
Possession, %6055

Averages per match: Arsenal — the last 10, Borussia Dortmund — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Arsenal

  • 01.11away · Liverpool1:0
  • 27.10away · Fleetwood Town1:1
  • 24.10Everton2:0
  • 21.10away · Bayern München2:2
  • 18.10away · Nottingham Forest1:0

Borussia Dortmund

  • 31.10away · Bayern München2:2
  • 27.10Werder Bremen3:2
  • 24.10Eintracht Frankfurt1:0
  • 20.10away · Sabah FK2:1
  • 17.10away · Union Berlin0:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
8, Straight to the round of 16Bayern München422012–5+78
9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Arsenal32106–2+47
10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16VfB Stuttgart42117–4+37
15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16LASK420210–9+16
16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Borussia Dortmund32015–4+16
17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Manchester United42028–806

Season 2026/27

Full table

Champions League on the same day

  • Bodø/GlimtLASKpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
  • GalatasarayAston Villapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
  • Real MadridPSV Eindhovenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.3
  • Manchester CityNapolipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
  • FeyenoordFC Portopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • RB LeipzigLenspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
  • Slovan BratislavaReal Betispreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • ComoAEK Athenspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →