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UEFA Champions League, round 5 · Tuesday, 24 November, (UTC+3)

Real Madrid — PSV Eindhoven

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Model prediction for 24 November

Real Madrid71%
Draw18%
PSV Eindhoven11%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Real Madrid are clear favourites: 71% against 11% for the opponent, draw 18%.

3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

  • Real Madrid's starting XI is worth €726m, PSV Eindhoven's €145m.
  • By the strength ratings Real Madrid are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • League table: Real Madrid — No. 5, 9 pts; PSV Eindhoven — No. 21, 4 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Real Madrid: 5 wins in a row.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Real Madrid — PSV Eindhoven What is xG?2.4–0.8
Real Madrid not to lose89%
PSV Eindhoven not to lose29%
No draw82%
Both teams to score: yes52%
Both teams to score: no48%
Total over 2.563%
Total under 2.537%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Real Madrid
  • Real Madrid goals
  • PSV Eindhoven goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatReal MadridPSV Eindhoven
Goals scored per match2.82.2
Goals conceded per match1.21.0
xG per match2.261.74
Opponents’ xG1.271.57
Shots16.016.0
On target6.95.0
Corners5.95.6
Cards1.92.3
Possession, %4958

Averages per match: Real Madrid — the last 10, PSV Eindhoven — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Real Madrid

  • 01.11away · Racing Santander3:0
  • 25.10away · Barcelona2:1
  • 21.10RB Leipzig4:1
  • 18.10Sevilla4:1
  • 14.10away · Roma4:3

PSV Eindhoven

  • 31.10Willem II7:0
  • 25.10Feyenoord1:1
  • 20.10away · FC Porto1:0
  • 17.10away · ADO Den Haag1:2
  • 13.10away · RB Leipzig0:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Straight to the round of 16Liverpool330012–7+59
5, Straight to the round of 16Real Madrid330010–5+59
6, Straight to the round of 16Sporting CP43018–4+49
20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Shakhtar Donetsk41124–404
21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16PSV Eindhoven31112–204
22, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Atlético Madrid41124–5-14

Season 2026/27

Full table

Champions League on the same day

  • Bodø/GlimtLASKpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
  • GalatasarayAston Villapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
  • Manchester CityNapolipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
  • ArsenalBorussia Dortmundpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
  • FeyenoordFC Portopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • RB LeipzigLenspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
  • Slovan BratislavaReal Betispreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • ComoAEK Athenspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 71% will not happen in roughly 29 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →