UEFA Champions League, round 5 · Tuesday, 24 November, (UTC+3)
RB Leipzig — Lens
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
RB Leipzig are clear favourites: 55% against 21% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects few goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 3.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- RB Leipzig's starting XI is worth €247m, Lens's €103m.
- By the strength ratings RB Leipzig are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: RB Leipzig — No. 28, 3 pts; Lens — No. 26, 3 pts.
- RB Leipzig: 3 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: RB Leipzig — Lens What is xG? | 1.9–1.1 | |
| RB Leipzig not to lose | 79% | |
| Lens not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig goals
- Lens goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | RB Leipzig | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| xG per match | 2.08 | 1.36 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.84 | 1.55 |
| Shots | 14.9 | 15.3 |
| On target | 5.8 | 5.3 |
| Corners | 4.9 | 6.4 |
| Cards | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 52 |
Form
- 31.10away · Schalke 042:0
- 27.10away · RW Essen2:1
- 24.10Elversberg4:0
- 21.10away · Real Madrid1:4
- 17.10away · Bayern München1:6
- 30.10away · Lille0:1
- 24.10Paris FC2:1
- 21.10away · Club Brugge0:3
- 17.10away · Troyes3:1
- 13.10Sporting CP0:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Sabah FK | 3 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 26 | Lens | 3 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 27 | AEK Athens | 3 | 1 | -5 | 3 |
| 28 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | -5 | 3 |
| 29 | Villarreal | 4 | 1 | -6 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- Bodø/GlimtLASKpreliminary6620141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- GalatasarayAston Villapreliminary4526301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Real MadridPSV Eindhovenpreliminary7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.3
- Manchester CityNapolipreliminary7018121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
- ArsenalBorussia Dortmundpreliminary6221171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- FeyenoordFC Portopreliminary3826361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- Slovan BratislavaReal Betispreliminary1521642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
- ComoAEK Athenspreliminary7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →