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UEFA Champions League, round 5 · Tuesday, 24 November, (UTC+3)

Galatasaray — Aston Villa

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Model prediction for 24 November

Galatasaray45%
Draw26%
Aston Villa30%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Galatasaray are slightly stronger: 45% against 30%, draw 26%.

The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Galatasaray are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.

Facts

  • League table: Galatasaray — No. 18, 6 pts; Aston Villa — No. 3, 9 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Galatasaray: 5 wins in a row.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Galatasaray — Aston Villa What is xG?1.6–1.3
Galatasaray not to lose70%
Aston Villa not to lose55%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes58%
Both teams to score: no42%
Total over 2.555%
Total under 2.545%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Galatasaray
  • Galatasaray goals
  • Aston Villa goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatGalatasarayAston Villa
Goals scored per match1.92.1
Goals conceded per match1.51.4
xG per match1.671.73
Opponents’ xG1.451.60
Shots16.115.9
On target5.75.7
Corners7.25.4
Cards2.12.0
Possession, %5546

Averages per match: Galatasaray — the last 10, Aston Villa — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Galatasaray

  • 03.11VfB Stuttgart2:0
  • 30.10away · Konyaspor4:0
  • 26.10Fenerbahçe2:1
  • 21.10away · Lille4:2
  • 17.10away · Gençlerbirliği1:0

Aston Villa

  • 03.11away · Barcelona0:3
  • 31.10Fulham1:1
  • 28.10away · AFC Bournemouth0:3
  • 24.10Manchester City2:1
  • 21.10Viking3:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2, Straight to the round of 16Barcelona430114–6+89
3, Straight to the round of 16Aston Villa430112–6+69
4, Straight to the round of 16Liverpool330012–7+59
17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Manchester United42028–806
18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Galatasaray42028–9-16
19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Roma411210–8+24

Season 2026/27

Full table

Champions League on the same day

  • Bodø/GlimtLASKpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
  • Real MadridPSV Eindhovenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.3
  • Manchester CityNapolipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
  • ArsenalBorussia Dortmundpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
  • FeyenoordFC Portopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • RB LeipzigLenspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
  • Slovan BratislavaReal Betispreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • ComoAEK Athenspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →