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UEFA Champions League, round 5 · Tuesday, 24 November, (UTC+3)

Manchester City — Napoli

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Model prediction for 24 November

Manchester City70%
Draw18%
Napoli12%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Manchester City are clear favourites: 70% against 12% for the opponent, draw 18%.

3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

  • Manchester City's starting XI is worth €784m, Napoli's €187m.
  • By the strength ratings Manchester City are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • League table: Manchester City — No. 12, 6 pts; Napoli — No. 24, 3 pts. A gap of 3 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Manchester City — Napoli What is xG?2.4–0.9
Manchester City not to lose88%
Napoli not to lose30%
No draw82%
Both teams to score: yes53%
Both teams to score: no47%
Total over 2.562%
Total under 2.538%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Manchester City
  • Manchester City goals
  • Napoli goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatManchester CityNapoli
Goals scored per match2.71.7
Goals conceded per match1.51.5
xG per match2.041.56
Opponents’ xG1.341.45
Shots16.314.7
On target5.65.7
Corners6.04.7
Cards1.31.3
Possession, %6053

Averages per match: Manchester City — the last 10, Napoli — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Manchester City

  • 31.10Brighton & Hove Albion0:1
  • 28.10Brighton & Hove Albion2:2
  • 24.10away · Aston Villa1:2
  • 20.10AEK Athens5:1
  • 17.10Ipswich Town3:2

Napoli

  • 01.11away · Juventus0:2
  • 28.10away · Monza4:1
  • 24.10Roma3:3
  • 20.10Bodø/Glimt4:3
  • 17.10away · Venezia0:1

Head to head

  • 18.09.2025Manchester City — Napoli2:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Como320110–5+56
12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Manchester City32019–5+46
13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Club Brugge32019–6+36
23, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Bodø/Glimt41124–9-54
24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Napoli31025–7-23
25Sabah FK31023–6-33

Season 2026/27

Full table

Champions League on the same day

  • Bodø/GlimtLASKpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
  • GalatasarayAston Villapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
  • Real MadridPSV Eindhovenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.3
  • ArsenalBorussia Dortmundpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
  • FeyenoordFC Portopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • RB LeipzigLenspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
  • Slovan BratislavaReal Betispreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • ComoAEK Athenspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →