UEFA Champions League, round 5 · Tuesday, 24 November, (UTC+3)
Como — AEK Athens
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Como are clear favourites: 71% against 11% for the opponent, draw 18%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- Como's starting XI is worth €266m, AEK Athens's €35m.
- By the strength ratings Como are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Como — No. 11, 6 pts; AEK Athens — No. 27, 3 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Como: 5 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Como — AEK Athens What is xG? | 2.4–0.8 | |
| Como not to lose | 89% | |
| AEK Athens not to lose | 29% | |
| No draw | 82% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Como
- Como goals
- AEK Athens goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Como | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| xG per match | 2.00 | 1.85 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.12 | 1.07 |
| Shots | 17.8 | 16.3 |
| On target | 6.1 | 5.1 |
| Corners | 5.3 | 5.0 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 60 | 55 |
Form
- 01.11Venezia1:0
- 27.10away · Torino3:1
- 24.10Sassuolo2:0
- 21.10Manchester United4:1
- 18.10away · Fiorentina3:1
- 01.11away · Panathinaikos0:2
- 24.10Panetolikos5:0
- 20.10away · Manchester City1:5
- 14.10away · Shakhtar Donetsk1:3
- 10.10OFI Crete3:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Como | 3 | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 26 | Lens | 3 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 27 | AEK Athens | 3 | 1 | -5 | 3 |
| 28 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | -5 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- Bodø/GlimtLASKpreliminary6620141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- GalatasarayAston Villapreliminary4526301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Real MadridPSV Eindhovenpreliminary7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.3
- Manchester CityNapolipreliminary7018121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
- ArsenalBorussia Dortmundpreliminary6222171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- FeyenoordFC Portopreliminary3826361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- RB LeipzigLenspreliminary5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Slovan BratislavaReal Betispreliminary1521642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 71% will not happen in roughly 29 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →