Belarusian Premier League · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — Neman
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Neman are clear favourites: 61% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Neman are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- Neman are 146 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — No. 12, 27 pts; Neman — No. 5, 46 pts. A gap of 19 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1 win, Neman 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — Neman What is xG? | 0.8–1.6 | |
| Arsenal Dzerzhinsk not to lose | 39% | |
| Neman not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk goals
- Neman goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | Neman |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 8.2 | 11.9 |
| On target | 2.9 | 4.3 |
| Corners | 2.9 | 5.1 |
| Cards | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 45 | 52 |
Form
- 30.10BATE1:0
- 25.10Dnepr Mogilev0:0
- 19.10away · Din. Minsk0:2
- 09.10Dynamo Brest0:1
- 18.09away · ML Vitebsk1:5
- 01.11away · Din. Minsk1:0
- 25.10Dynamo Brest1:4
- 18.10away · ML Vitebsk0:1
- 14.10away · BATE2:0
- 10.10Baranovici3:0
Head to head
- 04.07.2026Neman — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0:1
- 10.10.2025Neman — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1:0
- 19.04.2025Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — Neman0:3
- 06.10.2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — Neman0:4
- 16.05.2024Neman — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dynamo Brest | 27 | 15 | +21 | 50 |
| 5 | Neman | 27 | 14 | +8 | 46 |
| 6 | FC Gomel | 27 | 11 | +9 | 40 |
| 11 | Baranovici | 27 | 8 | -13 | 31 |
| 12 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 27 | 6 | -19 | 27 |
| 13 | Belshina | 27 | 6 | -22 | 24 |
Belarusian Premier League on the same day
- BaranoviciBelshinapreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Din. MinskFC Minskpreliminary7218111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9
- Dnepr MogilevVitebskpreliminary3928331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- Dynamo BrestNaftanpreliminary771671The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- FC GomelBATEpreliminary4926251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- IslochZhodinopreliminary6421151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- ML VitebskSlavia Mozyrpreliminary751781The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →