Belarusian Premier League · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
ML Vitebsk — Slavia Mozyr
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
ML Vitebsk are clear favourites: 75% against 8% for the opponent, draw 17%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings ML Vitebsk are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
- ML Vitebsk are 325 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: ML Vitebsk — No. 1, 59 pts; Slavia Mozyr — No. 10, 31 pts. A gap of 28 pts.
- Last 3 meetings: ML Vitebsk 2 wins, Slavia Mozyr 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: ML Vitebsk — Slavia Mozyr What is xG? | 2.2–0.6 | |
| ML Vitebsk not to lose | 92% | |
| Slavia Mozyr not to lose | 25% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap ML Vitebsk
- ML Vitebsk goals
- Slavia Mozyr goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | ML Vitebsk | Slavia Mozyr |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 13.0 | 10.9 |
| On target | 6.7 | 4.0 |
| Corners | 7.9 | 4.6 |
| Cards | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 61 | 49 |
Form
- 01.11away · Isloch1:3
- 25.10Zhodino4:2
- 19.10away · Belshina4:2
- 15.10away · Din. Minsk1:3
- 10.10away · BATE1:2
Head to head
- 01.07.2026Slavia Mozyr — ML Vitebsk2:4
- 27.09.2025ML Vitebsk — Slavia Mozyr2:3
- 12.05.2025Slavia Mozyr — ML Vitebsk0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | ML Vitebsk | 27 | 17 | +37 | 59 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Isloch | 27 | 17 | +30 | 58 |
| 9 | FC Minsk | 27 | 10 | -7 | 34 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 27 | 8 | -4 | 31 |
| 11 | Baranovici | 27 | 8 | -13 | 31 |
Belarusian Premier League on the same day
- Arsenal DzerzhinskNemanpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
- BaranoviciBelshinapreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Din. MinskFC Minskpreliminary7218111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9
- Dnepr MogilevVitebskpreliminary3928331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- Dynamo BrestNaftanpreliminary771671The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- FC GomelBATEpreliminary4926251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- IslochZhodinopreliminary6421151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 75% will not happen in roughly 25 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →