Nigeria NPFL, round 14 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Barau — Inter Lagos
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Barau are clear favourites: 81% against 5% for the opponent, draw 14%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 19%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Barau are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Barau are 253 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Barau — No. 7, 16 pts; Inter Lagos — No. 20, 6 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Barau: unbeaten in 4; Inter Lagos: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Barau — Inter Lagos What is xG? | 2.0–0.3 | |
| Barau not to lose | 95% | |
| Inter Lagos not to lose | 19% | |
| No draw | 86% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 19% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 81% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 39% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 61% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Barau
- Barau goals
- Inter Lagos goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
Form
- 30.10away · Niger Tornadoes0:0
- 25.10Kwara United1:1
- 19.10away · Rivers United FC0:0
- 11.10Enugu Rangers2:2
- 04.10away · Bendel Insurance1:4
- 01.11Ranchers Bees1:1
- 25.10away · Kun Khalifat0:1
- 18.10Nasarawa United0:2
- 11.10away · Warri Wolves FC1:3
- 04.10Katsina United1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Plateau United | 11 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 7 | Barau | 11 | 3 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 | Niger Tornadoes | 11 | 4 | +1 | 16 |
| 19 | Ranchers Bees | 10 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 20 | Inter Lagos | 11 | 1 | -11 | 6 |
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- Abia WarriorsEnyimbapreliminary5527181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.2
- Bendel InsuranceDoma Unitedpreliminary771581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Kun KhalifatKatsina Unitedpreliminary5825171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- Nasarawa UnitedWarri Wolves FCpreliminary5927141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:01.9
- Ranchers BeesPlateau Unitedpreliminary5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Enugu RangersShooting Starspreliminary761681The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.6
- Rivers United FCNiger Tornadoespreliminary731981The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.0
- Sporting LagosKwara Unitedpreliminary6124151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 81% will not happen in roughly 19 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →