Nigeria NPFL, round 14 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Nasarawa United — Warri Wolves FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Nasarawa United are clear favourites: 59% against 14% for the opponent, draw 27%.
1.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 30%, both teams to score — 30%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nasarawa United are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Nasarawa United are 116 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Nasarawa United — No. 5, 17 pts; Warri Wolves FC — No. 14, 13 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Warri Wolves FC: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 2 meetings: Nasarawa United 1 win, Warri Wolves FC 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nasarawa United — Warri Wolves FC What is xG? | 1.4–0.5 | |
| Nasarawa United not to lose | 86% | |
| Warri Wolves FC not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 30% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 70% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 30% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 70% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Nasarawa United
- Nasarawa United goals
- Warri Wolves FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
Form
- 01.11away · Kano Pillars0:2
- 25.10Enyimba1:0
- 18.10away · Inter Lagos2:0
- 11.10Doma United2:0
- 04.10away · Shooting Stars0:0
- 01.11away · Plateau United1:1
- 25.10Kano Pillars0:0
- 18.10away · Enyimba0:0
- 11.10Inter Lagos3:1
- 04.10away · Doma United0:1
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Nasarawa United — Warri Wolves FC3:0
- 30.11.2025Warri Wolves FC — Nasarawa United1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kano Pillars | 11 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 5 | Nasarawa United | 11 | 5 | +1 | 17 |
| 6 | Plateau United | 11 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 13 | Ikorodu City | 11 | 3 | +2 | 14 |
| 14 | Warri Wolves FC | 11 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 15 | Kwara United | 11 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- Abia WarriorsEnyimbapreliminary5527181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.2
- BarauInter Lagospreliminary811451The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- Bendel InsuranceDoma Unitedpreliminary771581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Kun KhalifatKatsina Unitedpreliminary5825171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- Ranchers BeesPlateau Unitedpreliminary5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Enugu RangersShooting Starspreliminary761681The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.6
- Rivers United FCNiger Tornadoespreliminary731981The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.0
- Sporting LagosKwara Unitedpreliminary6124151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →