Nigeria NPFL, round 14 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Sporting Lagos — Kwara United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Sporting Lagos are clear favourites: 61% against 15% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sporting Lagos are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Sporting Lagos are 105 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Sporting Lagos — No. 11, 15 pts; Kwara United — No. 15, 12 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Kwara United: winless in 4.
- Last 2 meetings: Sporting Lagos 1 win, Kwara United 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sporting Lagos — Kwara United What is xG? | 1.7–0.7 | |
| Sporting Lagos not to lose | 85% | |
| Kwara United not to lose | 39% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sporting Lagos
- Sporting Lagos goals
- Kwara United goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
Form
- 01.11away · Katsina United1:2
- 18.10away · Plateau United3:2
- 11.10Bendel Insurance2:1
- 03.10away · Kano Pillars1:1
- 30.09Ikorodu City0:0
- 01.11Bendel Insurance1:2
- 25.10away · Barau1:1
- 17.10Abia Warriors1:1
- 10.10away · Ikorodu City0:2
- 04.10Ranchers Bees2:1
Head to head
- 17.03.2024Sporting Lagos — Kwara United2:0
- 01.11.2023Kwara United — Sporting Lagos2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shooting Stars | 11 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 | Sporting Lagos | 10 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 12 | Doma United | 10 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Warri Wolves FC | 11 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 15 | Kwara United | 11 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 16 | Kun Khalifat | 11 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- Abia WarriorsEnyimbapreliminary5527181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.2
- BarauInter Lagospreliminary811451The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- Bendel InsuranceDoma Unitedpreliminary771581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Kun KhalifatKatsina Unitedpreliminary5825171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- Nasarawa UnitedWarri Wolves FCpreliminary5927141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:01.9
- Ranchers BeesPlateau Unitedpreliminary5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Enugu RangersShooting Starspreliminary761681The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.6
- Rivers United FCNiger Tornadoespreliminary731981The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →