UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Bayer Leverkusen — Marseille
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites: 64% against 15% for the opponent, draw 21%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- Bayer Leverkusen's starting XI is worth €200m, Marseille's €115m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings Bayer Leverkusen are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Bayer Leverkusen — No. 2, 6 pts; Marseille — No. 32, 0 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Bayer Leverkusen: 4 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen — Marseille What is xG? | 2.1–0.9 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen not to lose | 85% | |
| Marseille not to lose | 36% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen goals
- Marseille goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10away · Lech Poznań4:0
- 10.10away · Mainz 054:3
- 20.09RB Leipzig2:0
- 16.09NK Celje2:0
- 12.09away · Augsburg2:2
- 15.10Olympiacos0:1
- 11.10away · Troyes2:0
- 20.09Paris Saint-Germain1:2
- 17.09away · Beşiktaş1:4
- 11.09away · Rennes0:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Straight to the round of 16 | Juventus | 2 | 2 | +6 | 6 |
| 2, Straight to the round of 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | +6 | 6 |
| 3, Straight to the round of 16 | Benfica | 2 | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 31 | Viktoria Plzeň | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat Armenia | 2 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- MilanFerencvárospreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Real SociedadLyonpreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- RennesOlympiacospreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary6022181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary2825472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →