UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Lillestrøm — Viktoria Plzeň
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Viktoria Plzeň are slightly stronger: 47% against 28%, draw 25%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- Viktoria Plzeň's starting XI is worth €24m, Lillestrøm's €6m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Lillestrøm — No. 22, 1 pt; Viktoria Plzeň — No. 31, 0 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Lillestrøm: winless in 4; Viktoria Plzeň: winless in 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lillestrøm — Viktoria Plzeň What is xG? | 1.2–1.6 | |
| Lillestrøm not to lose | 53% | |
| Viktoria Plzeň not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lillestrøm
- Lillestrøm goals
- Viktoria Plzeň goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 15.10away · Sparta Prague1:1
- 11.10Molde2:2
- 20.09away · Viking0:3
- 17.09Torreense1:2
- 12.09Vålerenga2:0
- 15.10away · Ferencváros1:2
- 17.09Union St.Gilloise0:3
- 26.02Panathinaikos1:1
- 19.02away · Panathinaikos2:2
- 29.01away · Basel1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Salzburg | 2 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 22, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lillestrøm | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 23, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 30 | Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Viktoria Plzeň | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- MilanFerencvárospreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Real SociedadLyonpreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- RennesOlympiacospreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary6022181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Levski SofiaJagiellonia Białystokpreliminary4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →