UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, 20:45 (UTC+3)

Sparta Prague — AFC Bournemouth

Model prediction for 5 November

Sparta Prague17%

Draw22%

AFC Bournemouth61%

Model estimate at 07:04 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

AFC Bournemouth are clear favourites: 61% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

AFC Bournemouth's starting XI is worth €264m, Sparta Prague's €24m (Transfermarkt).
By the strength ratings AFC Bournemouth are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Sparta Prague — No. 11, 4 pts; AFC Bournemouth — No. 5, 6 pts. A gap of 2 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sparta Prague — AFC Bournemouth What is xG?		1.0–2.0
Sparta Prague not to lose		39%
AFC Bournemouth not to lose		83%
No draw		78%
Both teams to score: yes		55%
Both teams to score: no		45%
Total over 2.5		58%
Total under 2.5		42%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Sparta Prague
Sparta Prague goals
AFC Bournemouth goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Sparta Prague

15.10Lillestrøm1:1
16.09away · Ararat Armenia4:1
19.03AZ Alkmaar0:4
12.03away · AZ Alkmaar1:2
18.12Aberdeen3:0

AFC Bournemouth

15.10Sturm Graz3:0
10.10away · Chelsea1:5
20.09Liverpool0:1
17.09away · Real Sociedad2:1
12.09Brentford2:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	Goals	+/−	Pts
4, Straight to the round of 16	Beşiktaş	2	2	0	7–3	+4	6
5, Straight to the round of 16	AFC Bournemouth	2	2	0	5–1	+4	6
6, Straight to the round of 16	Omonia Nicosia	2	2	0	4–0	+4	6
10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Sunderland	2	2	0	3–1	+2	6
11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Sparta Prague	2	1	1	5–2	+3	4
12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Union St.Gilloise	2	1	1	4–1	+3	4

Season 2026/27

Full table

Europa League on the same day

20:45
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79147
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
20:45
Real SociedadLyonpreliminary
412633
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
20:45
RennesOlympiacospreliminary
482527
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
20:45
AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary
422631
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
20:45
Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary
622116
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
20:45
NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary
602218
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
20:45
LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary
282547
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
20:45
Levski SofiaJagiellonia Białystokpreliminary
442630
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →