UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, 20:45 (UTC+3)

Rennes — Olympiacos

Model prediction for 5 November

Rennes48%

Draw25%

Olympiacos27%

Model estimate at 01:01 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Rennes are clear favourites: 48% against 27% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

Rennes's starting XI is worth €95m, Olympiacos's €46m (Transfermarkt).

Facts

League table: Rennes — No. 13, 4 pts; Olympiacos — No. 9, 6 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Olympiacos: 4 wins in a row.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Rennes — Olympiacos What is xG?		1.7–1.2
Rennes not to lose		73%
Olympiacos not to lose		52%
No draw		75%
Both teams to score: yes		57%
Both teams to score: no		43%
Total over 2.5		55%
Total under 2.5		45%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Rennes
Rennes goals
Olympiacos goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Rennes

15.10OFI Crete2:1
11.10Auxerre4:1
19.09away · Lyon0:4
16.09away · Sturm Graz0:0
11.09Marseille1:0

Olympiacos

15.10away · Marseille1:0
11.10Panathinaikos1:0
20.09away · Levadiakos1:0
16.09Jagiellonia Białystok2:1
12.09OFI Crete0:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	Goals	+/−	Pts
8, Straight to the round of 16	Lyon	2	2	0	5–3	+2	6
9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Olympiacos	2	2	0	3–1	+2	6
10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Sunderland	2	2	0	3–1	+2	6
12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Union St.Gilloise	2	1	1	4–1	+3	4
13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Rennes	2	1	1	2–1	+1	4
14, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1	1	1–0	+1	4

Season 2026/27

Full table

Europa League on the same day

20:45
MilanFerencvárospreliminary
79147
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
20:45
Real SociedadLyonpreliminary
412633
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
20:45
Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary
172261
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
20:45
AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary
422631
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
20:45
Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary
622116
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
20:45
NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary
602218
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
20:45
LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary
282547
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
20:45
Levski SofiaJagiellonia Białystokpreliminary
442630
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →