EFL Championship, round 17 · Tuesday, 24 November, 22:45 (UTC+3)

Bristol City — Wrexham

Model prediction for 24 November

Bristol City40%

Draw29%

Wrexham31%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Bristol City are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 29%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Bristol City are 67 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Bristol City — No. 15, 18 pts; Wrexham — No. 19, 14 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
Last 2 meetings: Bristol City 0 wins, Wrexham 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bristol City — Wrexham What is xG?		1.4–1.2
Bristol City not to lose		69%
Wrexham not to lose		60%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		53%
Both teams to score: no		47%
Total over 2.5		46%
Total under 2.5		54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Bristol City
Bristol City goals
Wrexham goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Bristol City	Wrexham
Goals scored per match	1.1	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.2	1.5
xG per match	1.60	0.97
Opponents’ xG	1.01	1.22
Shots	14.6	11.8
On target	4.8	2.9
Corners	5.8	4.4
Cards	1.2	1.2
Possession, %	47	49

Averages per match: Bristol City — the last 10, Wrexham — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Bristol City

31.10away · Bolton Wanderers3:2
24.10away · Stoke City0:0
17.10Sheffield United0:1
13.10Blackburn Rovers0:1
10.10away · Charlton Athletic1:1

Wrexham

30.10away · Sheffield United0:1
24.10away · Blackburn Rovers0:2
17.10Preston North End4:1
13.10West Bromwich Albion1:2
10.10away · Derby County1:1

Head to head

17.02.2026Bristol City — Wrexham2:2
26.11.2025Wrexham — Bristol City2:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
14	Blackburn Rovers	14	5	3	6	20–22	-2	18
15	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15–17	-2	18
16	Bolton Wanderers	14	5	2	7	19–26	-7	17
18	Cardiff City	13	3	5	5	19–20	-1	14
19	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15–19	-4	14
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	13–23	-10	14

Season 2026/27

Full table

Championship on the same day

22:45
Cardiff CityPreston North Endpreliminary
632215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
22:45
Charlton AthleticLincoln Citypreliminary
383032
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
22:45
MiddlesbroughSwansea Citypreliminary
642215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
22:45
Norwich CityQueens Park Rangerspreliminary
452827
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:45
PortsmouthWest Ham Unitedpreliminary
262747
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
22:45
Sheffield UnitedSouthamptonpreliminary
382735
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
23:00
Wolverhampton WanderersDerby Countypreliminary
682111
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →