EFL Championship, round 17 · Tuesday, 24 November, (UTC+3)
Wolverhampton Wanderers — Derby County
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Wolverhampton Wanderers are clear favourites: 68% against 11% for the opponent, draw 21%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Wolverhampton Wanderers are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers are 229 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Wolverhampton Wanderers — No. 7, 24 pts; Derby County — No. 23, 7 pts. A gap of 17 pts.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: unbeaten in 4; Derby County: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Wolverhampton Wanderers — Derby County What is xG? | 2.0–0.8 | |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers not to lose | 89% | |
| Derby County not to lose | 32% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Wolverhampton Wanderers goals
- Derby County goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| xG per match | 1.53 | 0.96 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.93 | 1.96 |
| Shots | 15.0 | 12.4 |
| On target | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| Corners | 6.7 | 5.9 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 50 |
Form
- 31.10Cardiff City3:0
- 24.10Watford1:0
- 20.10Portsmouth1:1
- 16.10away · Burnley2:1
- 13.10Bolton Wanderers1:3
- 03.11Norwich City0:4
- 31.10away · Millwall1:4
- 24.10away · Sheffield United1:1
- 17.10Stoke City0:1
- 14.10away · Queens Park Rangers1:4
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Promotion play-offs | West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | +5 | 25 |
| 7, Promotion play-offs | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13 | 7 | +7 | 24 |
| 8, Promotion play-offs | West Ham United | 13 | 6 | +15 | 22 |
| 22, Relegation | Burnley | 14 | 1 | -8 | 10 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 14 | 1 | -18 | 7 |
| 24, Relegation | Preston North End | 14 | 1 | -18 | 5 |
Championship on the same day
- Bristol CityWrexhampreliminary4029311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Cardiff CityPreston North Endpreliminary6322151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- Charlton AthleticLincoln Citypreliminary3830321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- MiddlesbroughSwansea Citypreliminary6422151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Norwich CityQueens Park Rangerspreliminary4528271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- PortsmouthWest Ham Unitedpreliminary2627472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- Sheffield UnitedSouthamptonpreliminary3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →