EFL Championship, round 17 · Tuesday, 24 November, 22:45 (UTC+3)

Charlton Athletic — Lincoln City

Model prediction for 24 November

Charlton Athletic38%

Draw30%

Lincoln City32%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Charlton Athletic 38%, Lincoln City 32%, draw 30%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

By the strength ratings Lincoln City are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: Charlton Athletic — No. 21, 14 pts; Lincoln City — No. 17, 15 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
Charlton Athletic: 4 defeats in a row.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Charlton Athletic — Lincoln City What is xG?		1.3–1.2
Charlton Athletic not to lose		68%
Lincoln City not to lose		62%
No draw		70%
Both teams to score: yes		53%
Both teams to score: no		47%
Total over 2.5		46%
Total under 2.5		54%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Charlton Athletic
Charlton Athletic goals
Lincoln City goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Charlton Athletic	Lincoln City
Goals scored per match	0.5	1.0
Goals conceded per match	1.9	2.2
xG per match	1.05	1.05
Opponents’ xG	1.56	1.62
Shots	10.2	10.4
On target	2.6	3.1
Corners	4.2	2.7
Cards	2.1	2.7
Possession, %	45	38

Averages per match: Charlton Athletic — the last 10, Lincoln City — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Charlton Athletic

03.11Bolton Wanderers0:1
31.10away · Middlesbrough0:3
24.10Norwich City1:3
17.10away · Watford0:2
13.10away · Burnley2:2

Lincoln City

03.11away · Watford0:1
31.10Birmingham City1:3
24.10Burnley4:1
17.10away · Millwall2:2
14.10West Ham United0:6

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
16	Bolton Wanderers	14	5	2	7	19–26	-7	17
17	Lincoln City	14	4	3	7	14–24	-10	15
18	Cardiff City	13	3	5	5	19–20	-1	14
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	13–23	-10	14
21	Charlton Athletic	14	3	5	6	11–22	-11	14
22, Relegation	Burnley	14	1	7	6	18–26	-8	10

Season 2026/27

Full table

Championship on the same day

22:45
Bristol CityWrexhampreliminary
402931
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
22:45
Cardiff CityPreston North Endpreliminary
632215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
22:45
MiddlesbroughSwansea Citypreliminary
642215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
22:45
Norwich CityQueens Park Rangerspreliminary
452827
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:45
PortsmouthWest Ham Unitedpreliminary
262747
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
22:45
Sheffield UnitedSouthamptonpreliminary
382735
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
23:00
Wolverhampton WanderersDerby Countypreliminary
682111
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →