EFL Championship, round 17 · Tuesday, 24 November, 22:45 (UTC+3)

Sheffield United — Southampton

Model prediction for 24 November

Sheffield United38%

Draw27%

Southampton35%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Sheffield United 38%, Southampton 35%, draw 27%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Southampton are 82 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Sheffield United — No. 9, 22 pts; Southampton — No. 1, 28 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Sheffield United: unbeaten in 4; Southampton: unbeaten in 5.
Last 5 meetings: Sheffield United 0 wins, Southampton 4, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sheffield United — Southampton What is xG?		1.5–1.4
Sheffield United not to lose		65%
Southampton not to lose		62%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		61%
Both teams to score: no		39%
Total over 2.5		55%
Total under 2.5		45%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Sheffield United
Sheffield United goals
Southampton goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Sheffield United	Southampton
Goals scored per match	1.4	1.9
Goals conceded per match	1.1	0.9
xG per match	1.18	1.55
Opponents’ xG	1.11	1.33
Shots	12.4	14.2
On target	4.3	4.8
Corners	3.9	5.0
Cards	2.1	1.6
Possession, %	49	54

Averages per match: Sheffield United — the last 10, Southampton — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Sheffield United

03.11away · Preston North End3:2
30.10Wrexham1:0
24.10Derby County1:1
17.10away · Bristol City1:0
14.10away · Portsmouth2:3

Southampton

03.11away · West Bromwich Albion1:1
31.10Queens Park Rangers4:1
24.10away · West Ham United3:2
17.10Bolton Wanderers0:0
14.10away · Norwich City1:0

Head to head

21.01.2026Southampton — Sheffield United1:0
30.09.2025Sheffield United — Southampton1:2
21.09.2021Sheffield United — Southampton2:2
06.03.2021Sheffield United — Southampton0:2
13.12.2020Southampton — Sheffield United3:0

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Southampton	14	8	4	2	29–14	+15	28
2, Promotion	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30–17	+13	28
8, Promotion play-offs	West Ham United	13	6	4	3	33–18	+15	22
9	Sheffield United	14	6	4	4	20–17	+3	22
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	19–16	+3	22

Season 2026/27

Full table

Championship on the same day

22:45
Bristol CityWrexhampreliminary
402931
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
22:45
Cardiff CityPreston North Endpreliminary
632215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
22:45
Charlton AthleticLincoln Citypreliminary
383032
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
22:45
MiddlesbroughSwansea Citypreliminary
642215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
22:45
Norwich CityQueens Park Rangerspreliminary
452827
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:45
PortsmouthWest Ham Unitedpreliminary
262747
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
23:00
Wolverhampton WanderersDerby Countypreliminary
682111
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →