EFL Championship, round 17 · Tuesday, 24 November, 22:45 (UTC+3)

Cardiff City — Preston North End

Model prediction for 24 November

Cardiff City63%

Draw22%

Preston North End15%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Cardiff City are clear favourites: 63% against 15% for the opponent, draw 22%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.

Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

By the strength ratings Cardiff City are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Cardiff City are 180 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Cardiff City — No. 18, 14 pts; Preston North End — No. 24, 5 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
Preston North End: winless in 5.
Last 5 meetings: Cardiff City 1 win, Preston North End 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Cardiff City — Preston North End What is xG?		2.1–1.1
Cardiff City not to lose		85%
Preston North End not to lose		37%
No draw		78%
Both teams to score: yes		61%
Both teams to score: no		39%
Total over 2.5		61%
Total under 2.5		39%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Cardiff City
Cardiff City goals
Preston North End goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Cardiff City	Preston North End
Goals scored per match	1.4	0.9
Goals conceded per match	1.5	2.1
xG per match	1.89	1.13
Opponents’ xG	1.60	1.71
Shots	16.3	10.8
On target	6.0	2.4
Corners	5.8	5.1
Cards	2.2	2.0
Possession, %	59	38

Averages per match: Cardiff City — the last 10, Preston North End — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Cardiff City

31.10away · Wolverhampton Wanderers0:3
24.10Birmingham City1:0
17.10away · Middlesbrough2:2
13.10Watford5:1
10.10away · Blackburn Rovers1:2

Preston North End

03.11Sheffield United2:3
31.10away · Stoke City0:2
24.10West Bromwich Albion1:1
17.10away · Wrexham1:4
13.10away · Birmingham City0:4

Head to head

08.04.2025Preston North End — Cardiff City2:2
11.12.2024Cardiff City — Preston North End0:2
10.02.2024Cardiff City — Preston North End0:2
25.11.2023Preston North End — Cardiff City1:2
11.03.2023Preston North End — Cardiff City2:0

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
17	Lincoln City	14	4	3	7	14–24	-10	15
18	Cardiff City	13	3	5	5	19–20	-1	14
19	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15–19	-4	14
23, Relegation	Derby County	14	1	4	9	11–29	-18	7
24, Relegation	Preston North End	14	1	2	11	12–30	-18	5

Season 2026/27

Full table

Championship on the same day

22:45
Bristol CityWrexhampreliminary
402931
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
22:45
Charlton AthleticLincoln Citypreliminary
383032
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
22:45
MiddlesbroughSwansea Citypreliminary
642215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
22:45
Norwich CityQueens Park Rangerspreliminary
452827
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:45
PortsmouthWest Ham Unitedpreliminary
262747
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
22:45
Sheffield UnitedSouthamptonpreliminary
382735
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
23:00
Wolverhampton WanderersDerby Countypreliminary
682111
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →