EFL Championship, round 17 · Tuesday, 24 November, 22:45 (UTC+3)

Norwich City — Queens Park Rangers

Model prediction for 24 November

Norwich City45%

Draw28%

Queens Park Rangers27%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Norwich City are slightly stronger: 45% against 27%, draw 28%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

By the strength ratings Norwich City are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Norwich City are 115 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Norwich City — No. 12, 18 pts; Queens Park Rangers — No. 11, 21 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Norwich City: 3 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Norwich City 2 wins, Queens Park Rangers 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Norwich City — Queens Park Rangers What is xG?		1.5–1.2
Norwich City not to lose		73%
Queens Park Rangers not to lose		55%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		57%
Both teams to score: no		43%
Total over 2.5		52%
Total under 2.5		48%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Norwich City
Norwich City goals
Queens Park Rangers goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Norwich City	Queens Park Rangers
Goals scored per match	1.9	1.5
Goals conceded per match	2.1	1.4
xG per match	1.02	1.49
Opponents’ xG	1.50	1.10
Shots	12.4	14.0
On target	4.4	4.3
Corners	4.7	6.1
Cards	1.7	2.4
Possession, %	51	50

Averages per match: Norwich City — the last 10, Queens Park Rangers — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Norwich City

03.11away · Derby County4:0
31.10Watford3:2
24.10away · Charlton Athletic3:1
17.10Portsmouth0:1
14.10Southampton0:1

Queens Park Rangers

03.11Burnley1:1
31.10away · Southampton1:4
24.10Swansea City5:0
17.10away · Birmingham City0:3
14.10Derby County4:1

Head to head

01.01.2026Queens Park Rangers — Norwich City1:2
29.11.2025Norwich City — Queens Park Rangers3:1
29.12.2024Norwich City — Queens Park Rangers1:1
07.12.2024Queens Park Rangers — Norwich City3:0
10.02.2024Queens Park Rangers — Norwich City2:2

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	19–16	+3	22
11	Queens Park Rangers	14	5	6	3	22–17	+5	21
12	Norwich City	14	6	0	8	27–24	+3	18
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	23–24	-1	18

Season 2026/27

Full table

Championship on the same day

22:45
Bristol CityWrexhampreliminary
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1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
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Cardiff CityPreston North Endpreliminary
632215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
22:45
Charlton AthleticLincoln Citypreliminary
383032
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
22:45
MiddlesbroughSwansea Citypreliminary
642215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
22:45
PortsmouthWest Ham Unitedpreliminary
262747
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
22:45
Sheffield UnitedSouthamptonpreliminary
382735
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
23:00
Wolverhampton WanderersDerby Countypreliminary
682111
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →