EFL Championship, round 17 · Tuesday, 24 November, 22:45 (UTC+3)

Middlesbrough — Swansea City

Model prediction for 24 November

Middlesbrough64%

Draw22%

Swansea City15%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Middlesbrough are clear favourites: 64% against 15% for the opponent, draw 22%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

By the strength ratings Middlesbrough are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Middlesbrough are 153 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Middlesbrough — No. 2, 28 pts; Swansea City — No. 5, 26 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Middlesbrough: unbeaten in 5.
Last 5 meetings: Middlesbrough 3 wins, Swansea City 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Middlesbrough — Swansea City What is xG?		1.9–0.9
Middlesbrough not to lose		85%
Swansea City not to lose		36%
No draw		78%
Both teams to score: yes		53%
Both teams to score: no		47%
Total over 2.5		55%
Total under 2.5		45%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough goals
Swansea City goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Middlesbrough	Swansea City
Goals scored per match	2.3	1.4
Goals conceded per match	1.5	1.5
xG per match	2.13	1.48
Opponents’ xG	1.02	1.36
Shots	20.3	11.3
On target	7.2	4.0
Corners	6.7	3.6
Cards	1.3	1.5
Possession, %	58	60

Averages per match: Middlesbrough — the last 10, Swansea City — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Middlesbrough

31.10Charlton Athletic3:0
23.10away · Bolton Wanderers5:1
17.10Cardiff City2:2
13.10away · Stoke City3:2
10.10Wolverhampton Wanderers1:0

Swansea City

03.11away · Portsmouth1:3
31.10Blackburn Rovers4:0
24.10away · Queens Park Rangers0:5
17.10West Ham United0:1
13.10away · Millwall1:0

Head to head

06.04.2026Swansea City — Middlesbrough2:2
09.08.2025Middlesbrough — Swansea City1:0
08.03.2025Swansea City — Middlesbrough1:0
10.08.2024Middlesbrough — Swansea City1:0
06.04.2024Middlesbrough — Swansea City2:0

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Southampton	14	8	4	2	29–14	+15	28
2, Promotion	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30–17	+13	28
3, Promotion play-offs	Birmingham City	14	7	5	2	26–13	+13	26
4, Promotion play-offs	Stoke City	14	8	2	4	22–17	+5	26
5, Promotion play-offs	Swansea City	14	8	2	4	21–16	+5	26
6, Promotion play-offs	West Bromwich Albion	14	7	4	3	20–15	+5	25

Season 2026/27

Full table

Championship on the same day

22:45
Bristol CityWrexhampreliminary
402931
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
22:45
Cardiff CityPreston North Endpreliminary
632215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
22:45
Charlton AthleticLincoln Citypreliminary
383032
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
22:45
Norwich CityQueens Park Rangerspreliminary
452827
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:45
PortsmouthWest Ham Unitedpreliminary
262747
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
22:45
Sheffield UnitedSouthamptonpreliminary
382735
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
23:00
Wolverhampton WanderersDerby Countypreliminary
682111
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →