EFL Championship, round 17 · Tuesday, 24 November, 22:45 (UTC+3)

Portsmouth — West Ham United

Model prediction for 24 November

Portsmouth26%

Draw27%

West Ham United47%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

West Ham United are clear favourites: 47% against 26% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
In recent matches the betting market rated West Ham United higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Portsmouth — No. 10, 22 pts; West Ham United — No. 8, 22 pts.
Portsmouth: unbeaten in 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Portsmouth — West Ham United What is xG?		1.2–1.6
Portsmouth not to lose		53%
West Ham United not to lose		74%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		58%
Both teams to score: no		42%
Total over 2.5		53%
Total under 2.5		47%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Portsmouth
Portsmouth goals
West Ham United goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Portsmouth	West Ham United
Goals scored per match	1.4	2.7
Goals conceded per match	0.8	1.4
xG per match	1.12	2.13
Opponents’ xG	1.15	1.35
Shots	12.7	17.1
On target	3.4	6.8
Corners	4.8	6.5
Cards	1.9	1.9
Possession, %	48	55

Averages per match: Portsmouth — the last 10, West Ham United — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Portsmouth

03.11Swansea City3:1
31.10away · Burnley0:0
24.10Millwall2:1
20.10away · Wolverhampton Wanderers1:1
17.10away · Norwich City1:0

West Ham United

31.10West Bromwich Albion1:3
24.10Southampton2:3
17.10away · Swansea City1:0
14.10away · Lincoln City6:0
09.10Queens Park Rangers1:1

Head to head

08.08.2026West Ham United — Portsmouth3:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
7, Promotion play-offs	Wolverhampton Wanderers	13	7	3	3	23–16	+7	24
8, Promotion play-offs	West Ham United	13	6	4	3	33–18	+15	22
9	Sheffield United	14	6	4	4	20–17	+3	22
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	19–16	+3	22
11	Queens Park Rangers	14	5	6	3	22–17	+5	21

Season 2026/27

Full table

Championship on the same day

22:45
Bristol CityWrexhampreliminary
402931
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
22:45
Cardiff CityPreston North Endpreliminary
632215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
22:45
Charlton AthleticLincoln Citypreliminary
383032
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
22:45
MiddlesbroughSwansea Citypreliminary
642215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
22:45
Norwich CityQueens Park Rangerspreliminary
452827
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:45
Sheffield UnitedSouthamptonpreliminary
382735
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
23:00
Wolverhampton WanderersDerby Countypreliminary
682111
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →