Coupe de France, round 6 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3)
Cergy Pontoise — FC Fleury 91
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1:3Came true
In short
Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, FC Fleury 91 to win (54%), came true.
FC Fleury 91 are clear favourites: 54% against 22% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Fleury 91 are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- FC Fleury 91 are 107 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cergy Pontoise — FC Fleury 91 What is xG? | 1.1–1.8 | |
| Cergy Pontoise not to lose | 46% | |
| FC Fleury 91 not to lose | 78% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Cergy Pontoise
- Cergy Pontoise goals
- FC Fleury 91 goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 15.11away · APM Metz2:2
- 26.10away · Argenteuil6:1
- 16.11Amiens1:1
- 27.10away · St Denis US4:0
- 09.12away · CS Le Moule1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Next match
- VesoulFC Fleury 9114 November · Coupe de France · preliminary2325522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
Coupe de France on the same day
- 5524211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
- 2225532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 3627372The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:2.2.7
- 3327402The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
- 3927341The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 4227311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 4227321The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:4Final score 3:4. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →