Coupe de France, round 6 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3)
Challans — Montilliers
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Challans to win (45%), came true.
Challans are slightly stronger: 45% against 29%, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Challans are 132 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Challans — Montilliers What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Challans not to lose | 71% | |
| Montilliers not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Challans
- Challans goals
- Montilliers goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 15.11Garde Saint-Ivy Pontivy0:2
- 26.10away · ES Blain8:0
- 05.01Rodez0:4
- 10.12away · Paimpol FC1:1
- 18.11away · Plabennec1:1
No past matches in the data yet.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Next match
- BressuireChallans14 November · Coupe de France · preliminary2926442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
Coupe de France on the same day
- 5524211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
- 2225532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 3627372The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:2.2.7
- 3327402The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
- 3927341The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 4227311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 4227321The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:4Final score 3:4. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →