Major League Soccer (MLS), round 34 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
DC United — New York City FC
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In short
New York City FC are slightly stronger: 41% against 31%, draw 29%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.2).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- New York City FC are 64 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: DC United — No. 28, 33 pts; New York City FC — No. 22, 39 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- DC United: 5 defeats in a row; New York City FC: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: DC United 2 wins, New York City FC 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: DC United — New York City FC What is xG? | 1.4–1.6 | |
| DC United not to lose | 59% | |
| New York City FC not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap DC United
- DC United goals
- New York City FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | DC United | New York City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.45 | 1.45 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.76 | 1.42 |
| Shots | 13.5 | 12.8 |
| On target | 4.0 | 4.7 |
| Corners | 5.9 | 5.5 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Possession, % | 40 | 54 |
Form
- 31.10away · Columbus Crew0:3
- 29.10away · Toronto FC1:2
- 25.10FC Cincinnati0:2
- 22.10away · FC Cincinnati1:2
- 18.10away · Orlando City1:4
- 31.10CF Montréal1:1
- 29.10Atlanta United2:1
- 25.10away · Orlando City2:2
- 18.10Los Angeles FC1:1
- 15.10away · Inter Miami CF0:2
Head to head
- 03.05.2026New York City FC — DC United0:2
- 31.08.2025New York City FC — DC United1:2
- 15.05.2025DC United — New York City FC0:0
- 15.09.2024DC United — New York City FC1:1
- 21.04.2024New York City FC — DC United2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Minnesota United | 33 | 10 | -4 | 41 |
| 22 | New York City FC | 33 | 9 | +3 | 39 |
| 23 | Toronto FC | 33 | 9 | -12 | 39 |
| 27 | Atlanta United | 33 | 9 | -14 | 33 |
| 28 | DC United | 33 | 7 | -21 | 33 |
| 29 | CF Montréal | 33 | 6 | -30 | 26 |
MLS on the same day
- 4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- 3227412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- 6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.8
- 1724592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:23.5
- 4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.6
- 6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.4
- 2627462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →