Major League Soccer (MLS), round 34 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
FC Cincinnati — Nashville SC
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In short
Nashville SC are slightly stronger: 41% against 32%, draw 27%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.2).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Nashville SC are 98 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: FC Cincinnati — No. 13, 46 pts; Nashville SC — No. 1, 74 pts. A gap of 28 pts.
- FC Cincinnati: unbeaten in 4; Nashville SC: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Cincinnati 2 wins, Nashville SC 2, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: FC Cincinnati 8, Nashville SC 6.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Cincinnati — Nashville SC What is xG? | 1.6–1.7 | |
| FC Cincinnati not to lose | 59% | |
| Nashville SC not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | FC Cincinnati | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.86 | 2.30 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| Shots | 17.3 | 15.1 |
| On target | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Corners | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| Cards | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Possession, % | 53 | 55 |
Form
- 31.10Philadelphia Union1:0
- 29.10away · Inter Miami CF2:2
- 25.10away · DC United2:0
- 22.10DC United2:1
- 19.10Columbus Crew0:2
- 02.11Red Bull New York3:2
- 29.10Philadelphia Union0:0
- 24.10away · CF Montréal2:0
- 18.10away · San Jose Earthquakes1:1
- 15.10Sporting Kansas City4:0
Head to head
- 30.08.2026Nashville SC — FC Cincinnati4:0
- 14.09.2025FC Cincinnati — Nashville SC2:1
- 30.03.2025Nashville SC — FC Cincinnati1:2
- 22.09.2024Nashville SC — FC Cincinnati2:2
- 30.05.2024FC Cincinnati — Nashville SC0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Nashville SC | 33 | 22 | +44 | 74 |
| 2, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Vancouver Whitecaps | 33 | 18 | +38 | 61 |
| 12, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Philadelphia Union | 33 | 13 | +11 | 47 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | FC Cincinnati | 33 | 12 | -6 | 46 |
| 14, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | Columbus Crew | 33 | 13 | +6 | 44 |
MLS on the same day
- 4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- 3129412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- 6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.8
- 1724592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:23.5
- 4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.6
- 6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.4
- 2627462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →