Major League Soccer (MLS), round 34 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Philadelphia Union — Toronto FC
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In short
Philadelphia Union are clear favourites: 69% against 12% for the opponent, draw 19%.
3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.2).
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Philadelphia Union are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
- Philadelphia Union are 235 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Philadelphia Union — No. 12, 47 pts; Toronto FC — No. 23, 39 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Philadelphia Union: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Philadelphia Union 1 win, Toronto FC 1, 3 draws.
- Days of rest before the match: Philadelphia Union 8, Toronto FC 6.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Philadelphia Union — Toronto FC What is xG? | 2.4–1.0 | |
| Philadelphia Union not to lose | 88% | |
| Toronto FC not to lose | 31% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Philadelphia Union
- Philadelphia Union goals
- Toronto FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Philadelphia Union | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| xG per match | 2.07 | 1.67 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.08 | 2.08 |
| Shots | 17.2 | 13.3 |
| On target | 6.2 | 4.4 |
| Corners | 6.4 | 4.0 |
| Cards | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Possession, % | 48 | 45 |
Form
- 31.10away · FC Cincinnati0:1
- 29.10away · Nashville SC0:0
- 25.10New England Revolution1:2
- 17.10Charlotte FC2:2
- 15.10away · Chicago Fire FC3:1
- 02.11away · Atlanta United1:3
- 29.10DC United2:1
- 24.10away · Columbus Crew2:4
- 18.10away · Red Bull New York2:0
- 15.10Orlando City3:3
Head to head
- 23.04.2026Toronto FC — Philadelphia Union3:3
- 10.08.2025Philadelphia Union — Toronto FC1:1
- 29.05.2025Toronto FC — Philadelphia Union1:2
- 14.07.2024Toronto FC — Philadelphia Union2:1
- 30.05.2024Philadelphia Union — Toronto FC0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Los Angeles FC | 33 | 12 | +13 | 47 |
| 12, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Philadelphia Union | 33 | 13 | +11 | 47 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | FC Cincinnati | 33 | 12 | -6 | 46 |
| 22 | New York City FC | 33 | 9 | +3 | 39 |
| 23 | Toronto FC | 33 | 9 | -12 | 39 |
| 24 | Red Bull New York | 33 | 11 | -17 | 39 |
MLS on the same day
- 4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- 3227412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- 3129412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- 6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.8
- 1724592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:23.5
- 4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.6
- 2627462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →