Nigeria NPFL, round 13 · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3)
Katsina United — Nasarawa United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Katsina United are clear favourites: 54% against 18% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 35%, both teams to score — 39%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Katsina United are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Katsina United are 68 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Katsina United — No. 9, 16 pts; Nasarawa United — No. 5, 17 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 4 meetings: Katsina United 2 wins, Nasarawa United 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Katsina United — Nasarawa United What is xG? | 1.4–0.7 | |
| Katsina United not to lose | 82% | |
| Nasarawa United not to lose | 46% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 39% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 61% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 35% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 65% |
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- Handicap Katsina United
- Katsina United goals
- Nasarawa United goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
Form
- 01.11Sporting Lagos2:1
- 24.10Plateau United2:2
- 18.10away · Kano Pillars0:1
- 09.10Enyimba4:2
- 04.10away · Inter Lagos1:1
- 01.11away · Kano Pillars0:2
- 25.10Enyimba1:0
- 18.10away · Inter Lagos2:0
- 11.10Doma United2:0
- 04.10away · Shooting Stars0:0
Head to head
- 15.02.2026Katsina United — Nasarawa United1:0
- 28.09.2025Nasarawa United — Katsina United2:0
- 25.01.2025Nasarawa United — Katsina United1:0
- 29.12.2024Katsina United — Nasarawa United1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kano Pillars | 11 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 5 | Nasarawa United | 11 | 5 | +1 | 17 |
| 6 | Plateau United | 11 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 | Niger Tornadoes | 11 | 4 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 | Katsina United | 11 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Shooting Stars | 11 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- EnyimbaIkorodu Citypreliminary5327211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- Inter LagosAbia Warriorspreliminary4033281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.8
- Kano PillarsRanchers Beespreliminary6323141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- Kwara UnitedRivers United FCpreliminary4431251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:11.9
- Niger TornadoesEnugu Rangerspreliminary4132261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.9
- Plateau UnitedKun Khalifatpreliminary6522131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- Shooting StarsBendel Insurancepreliminary5625191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Warri Wolves FCSporting Lagospreliminary5229201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →