Nigeria NPFL, round 13 · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3)
Kwara United — Rivers United FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Kwara United are slightly stronger: 44% against 25%, draw 31%.
1.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 31%, both teams to score — 38%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Kwara United — No. 15, 12 pts; Rivers United FC — No. 1, 18 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Kwara United: winless in 4; Rivers United FC: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Kwara United 1 win, Rivers United FC 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kwara United — Rivers United FC What is xG? | 1.1–0.8 | |
| Kwara United not to lose | 75% | |
| Rivers United FC not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 38% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 62% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 31% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 69% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kwara United
- Kwara United goals
- Rivers United FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
Form
- 01.11Bendel Insurance1:2
- 25.10away · Barau1:1
- 17.10Abia Warriors1:1
- 10.10away · Ikorodu City0:2
- 04.10Ranchers Bees2:1
- 01.11Enugu Rangers1:1
- 25.10away · Bendel Insurance1:2
- 19.10Barau0:0
- 11.10away · Abia Warriors0:0
- 04.10Ikorodu City2:0
Head to head
- 18.02.2026Kwara United — Rivers United FC1:1
- 31.08.2025Rivers United FC — Kwara United1:0
- 11.05.2025Kwara United — Rivers United FC3:1
- 15.12.2024Rivers United FC — Kwara United2:1
- 09.05.2024Kwara United — Rivers United FC0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rivers United FC | 11 | 4 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | Enugu Rangers | 9 | 5 | +5 | 18 |
| 14 | Warri Wolves FC | 11 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 15 | Kwara United | 11 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 16 | Kun Khalifat | 11 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- EnyimbaIkorodu Citypreliminary5327211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- Inter LagosAbia Warriorspreliminary4033281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.8
- Kano PillarsRanchers Beespreliminary6323141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- Katsina UnitedNasarawa Unitedpreliminary5428181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.0
- Niger TornadoesEnugu Rangerspreliminary4132261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.9
- Plateau UnitedKun Khalifatpreliminary6522131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- Shooting StarsBendel Insurancepreliminary5625191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Warri Wolves FCSporting Lagospreliminary5229201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →