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UEFA Nations League, round 5, League D, group 2 · Friday, 13 November, (UTC+3) · Rheinpark Stadion

Liechtenstein — Azerbaijan

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Model prediction for 13 November

Liechtenstein4%
Draw18%
Azerbaijan78%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Azerbaijan are clear favourites: 78% against 4% for the opponent, draw 18%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 29%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Liechtenstein 887, Azerbaijan 1326 — Azerbaijan clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Liechtenstein — No. 3, 1 pt; Azerbaijan — No. 1, 5 pts. A gap of 4 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Liechtenstein — Azerbaijan What is xG?0.4–2.0
Liechtenstein not to lose22%
Azerbaijan not to lose96%
No draw82%
Both teams to score: yes29%
Both teams to score: no71%
Total over 2.542%
Total under 2.558%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Liechtenstein
  • Liechtenstein goals
  • Azerbaijan goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatLiechtensteinAzerbaijan
Goals scored per match0.00.6
Goals conceded per match2.81.6
xG per match0.220.93
Opponents’ xG2.531.75
Shots3.29.3
On target0.62.9
Corners0.62.9
Cards1.82.4
Possession, %2542

Averages per match: Liechtenstein — the last 5, Azerbaijan — the last 7 matches in all competitions.

Form

Liechtenstein

  • 05.10Gibraltar0:2
  • 01.10away · Azerbaijan0:0
  • 27.09away · Malta0:2
  • 24.09Lithuania0:2
  • 07.06Cyprus0:2

Azerbaijan

  • 04.10Lithuania1:0
  • 01.10Liechtenstein0:0
  • 27.09away · Lithuania1:1
  • 23.09Tajikistan1:0
  • 09.06San Marino2:1

Head to head

  • 01.10.2026Azerbaijan — Liechtenstein0:0

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveAzerbaijan31202–1+15
2, Promotion to the league aboveLithuania31113–2+14
3, Promotion to the league aboveLiechtenstein20110–2-21

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • MoldovaKazakhstanpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
  • NetherlandsGreecepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
  • SerbiaGermanypreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.5
  • ScotlandNorth Macedoniapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
  • SloveniaSwitzerlandpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
  • SlovakiaFaroe Islandspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.5
  • BulgariaIcelandpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
  • LuxembourgEstoniapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →