Major League Soccer (MLS), round 34 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Minnesota United — San Jose Earthquakes
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In short
Minnesota United are clear favourites: 51% against 23% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.2).
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Minnesota United are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Minnesota United are 83 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Minnesota United — No. 21, 41 pts; San Jose Earthquakes — No. 8, 52 pts. A gap of 11 pts.
- Minnesota United: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Minnesota United 4 wins, San Jose Earthquakes 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Minnesota United — San Jose Earthquakes What is xG? | 2.0–1.4 | |
| Minnesota United not to lose | 77% | |
| San Jose Earthquakes not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Minnesota United
- Minnesota United goals
- San Jose Earthquakes goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Minnesota United | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.58 | 1.29 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.65 | 1.30 |
| Shots | 14.3 | 13.1 |
| On target | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Corners | 4.7 | 5.5 |
| Cards | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 47 |
Form
- 02.11away · Los Angeles FC3:1
- 29.10Sporting Kansas City3:1
- 25.10away · Houston Dynamo FC0:0
- 17.10St. Louis City3:2
- 15.10away · Colorado Rapids2:2
- 01.11Real Salt Lake2:1
- 29.10Colorado Rapids2:2
- 25.10away · FC Dallas0:3
- 18.10Nashville SC1:1
- 15.10away · Real Salt Lake1:1
Head to head
- 23.08.2026San Jose Earthquakes — Minnesota United1:5
- 29.04.2026San Jose Earthquakes — Minnesota United4:2
- 13.07.2025Minnesota United — San Jose Earthquakes4:1
- 09.03.2025San Jose Earthquakes — Minnesota United0:1
- 01.09.2024San Jose Earthquakes — Minnesota United1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Charlotte FC | 33 | 15 | +15 | 53 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | San Jose Earthquakes | 33 | 14 | +8 | 52 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | St. Louis City | 33 | 14 | +10 | 51 |
| 20 | Real Salt Lake | 33 | 12 | 0 | 42 |
| 21 | Minnesota United | 33 | 10 | -4 | 41 |
| 22 | New York City FC | 33 | 9 | +3 | 39 |
MLS on the same day
- 4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- 3227412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- 3129412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- 6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.8
- 1724592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:23.5
- 4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.6
- 6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →