Coupe de France, round 6 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3)
Sarre-Union — APM Metz
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1:2Missed
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Sarre-Union to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.
Sarre-Union are slightly stronger: 42% against 31%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Sarre-Union are 113 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sarre-Union — APM Metz What is xG? | 1.5–1.3 | |
| Sarre-Union not to lose | 69% | |
| APM Metz not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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- Handicap Sarre-Union
- Sarre-Union goals
- APM Metz goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 29.11Sochaux0:6
- 15.11away · FCVI St Maurice Blussans1:1
- 26.10FC Kronenbourg2:0
- 16.11Thaon0:2
- 26.10Strasbourg Olympique2:1
- 29.11Feignies Aulnoye0:2
- 15.11FC Fleury 912:2
- 26.10Amanvillers6:2
- 18.11away · Sarre-Union0:1
- 29.10away · Pagny sur Moselle4:0
Head to head
- 18.11.2023Sarre-Union — APM Metz1:0
Next match
- Racing BesançonAPM Metz14 November · Coupe de France · preliminary4127321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
Coupe de France on the same day
- 5524211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
- 2225532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 3627372The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:2.2.7
- 3327402The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
- 3927341The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 4227311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 4227321The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:4Final score 3:4. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →