UEFA Conference League, round 3 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Thun — Heart of Midlothian
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Heart of Midlothian are slightly stronger: 41% against 33%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Heart of Midlothian are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Heart of Midlothian are 121 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Thun — No. 30, 0 pts; Heart of Midlothian — No. 20, 1 pt. A gap of 1 pt.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Thun — Heart of Midlothian What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Thun not to lose | 59% | |
| Heart of Midlothian not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Thun
- Thun goals
- Heart of Midlothian goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10away · FC Twente0:1
- 10.10away · FC Zürich2:4
- 20.09away · FC Vaduz2:1
- 16.09Servette2:4
- 12.09Grasshopper0:1
- 15.10Nordsjælland1:1
- 10.10St. Mirren5:0
- 19.09away · Kilmarnock1:1
- 15.09away · Falkirk1:2
- 06.09Dundee FC2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Universitatea Craiova | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Heart of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 29 | AGF | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 30 | Thun | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | KuPS | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
Conference League on the same day
- AtalantaKairat Almatypreliminary801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- FC MidtjyllandAjaxpreliminary3926351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- FK Crvena ZvezdaInter Club d'Escaldespreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- KuPSGentpreliminary2023562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- Lincoln Red Imps FCHajduk Splitpreliminary3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- TrabzonsporFreiburgpreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- AGFBragapreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- MjällbyBorac Banja Lukapreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →