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The model’s week: 26 October – 1 November
The model’s most likely outcome came true in 573 of 930 matches (62%), against the 59% it expected — well within a normal week’s variation.
- matches predicted
- 930
- picks came true
- 62%
- the model expected
- 59%
- upsets
- 84
By sport
| Sport | Matches | Came true | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 434 | 56% | 53% |
| Hockey | 174 | 62% | 59% |
| Tennis | 163 | 64% | 65% |
| Basketball | 98 | 65% | 65% |
Confident calls that came true
Biggest misses
There were 84 upsets — wins by a side the model gave 30% or less — and it expected about 89.5.
Budowlani Lodz (W)1:3Radom (W)
6%for the winner94%favourite — Budowlani Lodz (W)
Villarreal0:1Espanyol
10%for the winner70%favourite — Villarreal
Fenerbahçe1:2Göztepe
11%for the winner70%favourite — Fenerbahçe
Young Boys3:5FC Zürich
13%for the winner67%favourite — Young Boys
CD Atlético Paso3:1Córdoba
13%for the winner67%favourite — Córdoba
Bitlis 19164:1Kayserispor
14%for the winner65%favourite — Kayserispor
By league
| League | Matches | Came true | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATP | 83 | 65% | 66% |
| WTA | 80 | 63% | 64% |
| NBA | 53 | 68% | 64% |
| NHL | 48 | 60% | 58% |
| Copa del Rey | 40 | 63% | 63% |
| Turkish Cup | 34 | 50% | 50% |
| AHL | 32 | 53% | 56% |
| MLS | 25 | 48% | 52% |
| Liiga | 22 | 64% | 60% |
| National League | 21 | 76% | 60% |
| EuroLeague | 20 | 65% | 67% |
| Serie B | 20 | 50% | 48% |
| Czech Extraliga | 19 | 63% | 62% |
| Serie A | 18 | 72% | 54% |
| DEL | 16 | 63% | 57% |
| DFB-Pokal | 16 | 69% | 64% |
| EuroCup | 16 | 63% | 62% |
| SHL | 16 | 63% | 63% |
| Allsvenskan | 13 | 69% | 54% |
| Championship | 12 | 83% | 53% |
| Tanzania Premier League | 12 | 75% | 63% |
| UFC | 12 | 67% | 61% |
| Botola Pro | 11 | 64% | 47% |
| Super Lig | 11 | 64% | 56% |
| Egyptian Premier League | 10 | 50% | 48% |
| J1 League | 10 | 60% | 48% |
| Saudi Pro League | 10 | 40% | 55% |
| La Liga | 10 | 70% | 60% |
| Nigeria NPFL | 10 | 50% | 54% |
| Liga ACB | 9 | 56% | 77% |
| Belgian Pro League | 9 | 56% | 59% |
| Bundesliga | 9 | 33% | 51% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 9 | 56% | 46% |
| Premier League | 9 | 56% | 47% |
| Ghana Premier League | 9 | 33% | 48% |
| Ligue 1 | 9 | 89% | 54% |
| Ligue 2 | 9 | 56% | 44% |
| Eredivisie | 9 | 44% | 58% |
| Scottish Premiership | 9 | 22% | 50% |
| Serie A1 (W) | 9 | 100% | 81% |
| PlusLiga | 9 | 89% | 75% |
| Efeler Ligi | 9 | 100% | 76% |
| EFL Cup | 8 | 25% | 52% |
| Segunda Division | 8 | 25% | 44% |
| Eliteserien | 8 | 50% | 49% |
| Primeira Liga | 8 | 88% | 59% |
| SA Premiership | 8 | 63% | 50% |
| Tauron Liga (W) | 8 | 75% | 80% |
Only leagues with at least 8 matches in the week: on fewer the share says nothing.
Each match counts with the model’s last estimate before kick-off, the one its page showed; hockey includes overtime. A week runs Monday to Sunday, UTC+3.