Primera Nacional, round 35 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento
Almirante Brown — Deportivo Morón
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1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Almirante Brown to win (40%), came true.
Almirante Brown are slightly stronger: 40% against 28%, draw 32%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Almirante Brown: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Almirante Brown 1 win, Deportivo Morón 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Almirante Brown — Deportivo Morón What is xG? | 1.2–1.0 | |
| Almirante Brown not to lose | 72% | |
| Deportivo Morón not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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- Handicap Almirante Brown
- Almirante Brown goals
- Deportivo Morón goals
- Corners and cards
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Match events
- 9′Mariano Santiago · Almirante Brown1:0
- 29′Santiago Kubiszyn · Deportivo Morón
- 37′Gerardo Alegre · Almirante Brown
- 54′Braian Salvareschi · Deportivo Morón
- 68′Emilio Lazza · Deportivo Morón
- 97′Ramón González · Almirante Brown
Substitutions (8)
- 46′Javier Martínez ↔ Milton Zanotti · Almirante Brown
- 46′Mateo Levato ↔ Elías Contreras · Deportivo Morón
- 62′Emanuel Iñiguez ↔ Francisco Flores · Deportivo Morón
- 73′Matías Benítez ↔ Mariano Bíttolo · Deportivo Morón
- 81′Santiago Villalba ↔ Luciano Pascual · Almirante Brown
- 81′Ramón González ↔ Marcos Abreliano · Almirante Brown
- 82′Juan Esquivel ↔ Mauro Burruchaga · Deportivo Morón
- 82′Emiliano Franco ↔ Gonzalo Berterame · Deportivo Morón
Lineups
Almirante Brown
- GKBruno Galván
- DFPedro Velurtas
- DFGustavo Cabral
- DFGerardo Alegre
- DFEnzo Cardozo
- MFLuciano Pascual81′
- MFMariano Santiago
- MFTomás Villoldo
- MFMarcos Abreliano81′
- MFSantiago Gauna
- FWMilton Zanotti46′
Came on (3)
- FWRamón González9′
- FWSantiago Villalba9′
- FWJavier Martínez44′
Deportivo Morón
- GKJulio Salvá
- DFFrancisco Flores62′
- DFBraian Salvareschi
- DFElías Contreras46′
- DFJoaquín Livera
- DFEmilio Lazza
- MFMauro Burruchaga82′
- MFMariano Bíttolo73′
- MFSantiago Kubiszyn
- FWFranco Fagúndez
- FWGonzalo Berterame82′
Came on (5)
- DFEmanuel Iñiguez28′
- MFMatías Benítez17′
- FWJuan Esquivel8′
- MFEmiliano Franco8′
- FWMateo Levato44′
Form
- 18.10away · Colón2:2
- 11.10CA San Miguel1:1
- 04.10away · San Telmo2:3
- 26.09Acassuso0:1
- 20.09away · CA Chaco For Ever0:1
- 18.10Club Atlético Mitre0:2
- 11.10away · Club Atlético Estudiantes0:2
- 03.10All Boys2:1
- 27.09away · Los Andes1:2
- 20.09Godoy Cruz1:2
Head to head
- 07.06.2026Deportivo Morón — Almirante Brown1:0
- 15.06.2025Deportivo Morón — Almirante Brown2:0
- 10.02.2025Almirante Brown — Deportivo Morón1:1
- 25.08.2024Deportivo Morón — Almirante Brown0:1
- 06.04.2024Almirante Brown — Deportivo Morón1:1
Next matches
- Godoy CruzAlmirante Brown31 October · Primera Nacional6025151The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:0.2.5
- Deportivo MorónCiudad de Bolívar31 October · Primera Nacional6125151The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.4
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 6721121The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 6026141The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 4232261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.0
- 5628161The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 5326211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 5129201The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 6325121The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 4831211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →