Primera Nacional, round 36 · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano
Deportivo Morón — Ciudad de Bolívar
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2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Deportivo Morón to win (61%), came true.
Deportivo Morón are clear favourites: 61% against 15% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.4 in total, against a competition average of 1.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 43%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Deportivo Morón are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Deportivo Morón are 122 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Deportivo Morón: 3 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Deportivo Morón — Ciudad de Bolívar What is xG? | 1.7–0.7 | |
| Deportivo Morón not to lose | 85% | |
| Ciudad de Bolívar not to lose | 39% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 43% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 57% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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- All totals
- Handicap Deportivo Morón
- Deportivo Morón goals
- Ciudad de Bolívar goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Match events
- 21′Maximiliano Gutiérrez · Ciudad de Bolívar
- 22′Mariano Bíttolo · Deportivo Morón1:0
- 31′Ezequiel Navarro · Ciudad de Bolívar
- 33′Emanuel Iñiguez · Deportivo Morón
- 46′Gonzalo Berterame · Deportivo Morón2:0
- 54′Mariano Bíttolo · Deportivo Morón
- 82′Maximiliano González · Deportivo Morón
- 87′Nahuel Yeri · Ciudad de Bolívar
Substitutions (10)
- 46′Maximiliano González ↔ Mauro Burruchaga · Deportivo Morón
- 58′Axel Carrión ↔ Ezequiel Navarro · Ciudad de Bolívar
- 58′Brian Quintana ↔ Tomás Guiacobini · Ciudad de Bolívar
- 63′Khalil Caraballo ↔ Jonatan Maciel · Ciudad de Bolívar
- 71′Emiliano Franco ↔ Mateo Levato · Deportivo Morón
- 71′Joaquín Zappacosta ↔ Mariano Bíttolo · Deportivo Morón
- 79′Thiago Rodríguez ↔ Agustín Paredes · Ciudad de Bolívar
- 79′Marcos Sotelo ↔ Guillermo Sánchez · Ciudad de Bolívar
- 83′Elías Contreras ↔ Santiago Kubiszyn · Deportivo Morón
- 83′Gastón González ↔ Franco Fagúndez · Deportivo Morón
Lineups
Deportivo Morón
- GKJulio Salvá
- DFEmanuel Iñiguez
- DFFrancisco Flores
- DFJoaquín Livera
- DFEmilio Lazza
- MFMauro Burruchaga46′
- MFMariano Bíttolo71′
- MFSantiago Kubiszyn83′
- FWFranco Fagúndez83′
- FWMateo Levato71′
- FWGonzalo Berterame
Came on (5)
- MFEmiliano Franco19′
- DFElías Contreras7′
- MFGastón González7′
- MFMaximiliano González44′
- FWJoaquín Zappacosta19′
Ciudad de Bolívar
- GKAgustín Rufinetti
- DFEzequiel Navarro58′
- DFAgustín Paredes79′
- DFElías Martínez
- DFFederico Peralta
- DFJonatan Maciel63′
- MFTomás Guiacobini58′
- MFNahuel Yeri
- MFArnaldo González
- MFMaximiliano Gutiérrez
- FWGuillermo Sánchez79′
Came on (5)
- DFAxel Carrión32′
- MFBrian Quintana32′
- FWKhalil Caraballo27′
- MFMarcos Sotelo11′
- MFThiago Rodríguez11′
Form
- 25.10away · Almirante Brown0:1
- 18.10Club Atlético Mitre0:2
- 11.10away · Club Atlético Estudiantes0:2
- 03.10All Boys2:1
- 27.09away · Los Andes1:2
- 25.10Colón0:2
- 17.10away · CA San Miguel2:1
- 12.10San Telmo1:0
- 03.10away · Acassuso1:0
- 26.09CA Chaco For Ever2:1
Head to head
- 13.06.2026Ciudad de Bolívar — Deportivo Morón1:2
Next matches
- Deportivo MorónColegiales15 November · Primera Nacional · preliminary5328201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- TemperleyCiudad de Bolívar15 November · Primera Nacional · preliminary6126141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 363331XThe most likely outcome came true: X0:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:1.2.0
- 5726171The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 4430261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- 2229492The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 6025151The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:0.2.5
- 5626181The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 2931402The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.3
- 4531231The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →