Primera Nacional, round 35 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella
Patronato de Parana — Agropecuario
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0:2Missed
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Patronato de Parana to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Patronato de Parana are clear favourites: 51% against 20% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Patronato de Parana are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Patronato de Parana are 88 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Patronato de Parana 1 win, Agropecuario 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Patronato de Parana — Agropecuario What is xG? | 1.4–0.8 | |
| Patronato de Parana not to lose | 80% | |
| Agropecuario not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 40% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 60% |
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- Handicap Patronato de Parana
- Patronato de Parana goals
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Match events
- 2′Federico Pérez · Agropecuario
- 3′Valentín Pereyra · Patronato de Parana
- 16′Santiago Gallucci · Agropecuario
- 26′Juan Cruz Vega · Agropecuario0:1
- 31′Franco Meritello · Patronato de Parana
- 55′Rodrigo Castro · Agropecuario
- 69′Braian Aranda · Agropecuario0:2
- 79′Renzo Reynaga · Patronato de Parana
Substitutions (8)
- 46′Rodrigo Castro ↔ Santiago Gallucci · Agropecuario
- 46′Benjamín Bravo ↔ Alejo Miró · Patronato de Parana
- 56′Renzo Reynaga ↔ Franco Soldano · Patronato de Parana
- 56′Tomás Attis ↔ Hernán Rivero · Patronato de Parana
- 56′Brandon Cortés ↔ Augusto Picco · Patronato de Parana
- 72′Natanael Pereyra ↔ Juan Cruz Vega · Agropecuario
- 72′Danilo Díaz ↔ Rodrigo Mosqueira · Agropecuario
- 73′Gonzalo Salega ↔ Valentín Pereyra · Patronato de Parana
Lineups
Patronato de Parana
- GKAlan Sosa
- DFNahuel Génez
- DFWalter Rueda
- DFFernando Evangelista
- DFFranco Meritello
- MFJuan Pablo Barinaga
- MFValentín Pereyra73′
- MFAlejo Miró46′
- MFAugusto Picco56′
- FWFranco Soldano56′
- FWHernán Rivero56′
Came on (5)
- MFBrandon Cortés34′
- MFBenjamín Bravo44′
- FWTomás Attis34′
- MFGonzalo Salega17′
- FWRenzo Reynaga34′
Agropecuario
- GKLuciano Acosta
- DFTomás Lecanda
- DFAlan Pérez
- DFFederico Pérez
- DFMilton Ramos
- DFDanilo Actis
- MFRodrigo Mosqueira72′
- MFBraian Aranda
- MFSantiago Gallucci46′
- FWJuan Cruz Vega72′
- FWAlejandro Gagliardi
Came on (3)
- MFRodrigo Castro44′
- FWDanilo Díaz18′
- MFNatanael Pereyra18′
Form
- 17.10away · Tristán Suárez0:1
- 11.10Atlético Güemes2:0
- 04.10away · Chacarita Juniors0:1
- 27.09San Martín San Juan3:0
- 22.09away · Nueva Chicago1:1
- 17.10Colegiales0:3
- 10.10away · Quilmes1:0
- 04.10CA Ferrocarril Midland0:0
- 27.09away · Atlanta0:1
- 20.09Gimnasia y Tiro1:0
Head to head
- 07.06.2026Agropecuario — Patronato de Parana1:1
- 23.06.2024Patronato de Parana — Agropecuario4:0
- 02.02.2024Agropecuario — Patronato de Parana1:0
- 16.10.2023Patronato de Parana — Agropecuario1:1
- 03.06.2023Agropecuario — Patronato de Parana2:1
Next matches
- AgropecuarioAlmagro31 October · Primera Nacional5726171The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- Atlético RafaelaPatronato de Parana2 November · Primera Nacional4731221The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.1
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 6721121The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 6026141The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 4232261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.0
- 4032281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 5628161The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 5326211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 6325121The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 4831211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →