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Primera Nacional, round 35 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio 23 de Agosto

Gimnasia Jujuy — Atlanta

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Model prediction and result

1:2Missed
Gimnasia Jujuy53%
Draw26%
Atlanta21%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Gimnasia Jujuy to win (53%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 53% fails in about 47 matches out of 100 on average.

Gimnasia Jujuy are clear favourites: 53% against 21% for the opponent, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.6 in total, against a competition average of 1.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Gimnasia Jujuy are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
  • Gimnasia Jujuy are 83 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 3 meetings: Gimnasia Jujuy 2 wins, Atlanta 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Gimnasia Jujuy — Atlanta What is xG?1.6–1.0
Gimnasia Jujuy not to lose79%
Atlanta not to lose47%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes53%
Both teams to score: no47%
Total over 2.549%
Total under 2.551%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Gimnasia Jujuy
  • Gimnasia Jujuy goals
  • Atlanta goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 44′Ignacio Rodríguez · Atlanta
  2. 50′Ignacio Rodríguez · Atlanta0:1
  3. 61′Jeremías Puch · Atlanta0:2
  4. 66′Cristian Menéndez · Gimnasia Jujuy1:2
  5. 85′Tomás Castro · Atlanta
  6. 85′Nicolás Dematei · Gimnasia Jujuy
Substitutions (6)
  1. 15′Ignacio Rodríguez ↔ Federico Álvarez · Atlanta
  2. 46′Jeremías Puch ↔ Christian Bernardi · Atlanta
  3. 56′Dylan Argüello ↔ Rodrigo Sosa · Atlanta
  4. 59′Cristian Menéndez ↔ Franco Camargo · Gimnasia Jujuy
  5. 73′Franco Cáceres ↔ Braian Rivero · Atlanta
  6. 75′Abel Argañaraz ↔ Federico Paradela · Gimnasia Jujuy

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Gimnasia Jujuy

  1. GKMilton Álvarez
  2. DFNicolás Dematei
  3. DFFranco Camargo59′
  4. DFGuillermo Cosaro
  5. DFEmiliano Endrizzi
  6. MFFederico Paradela75′
  7. MFDavid Gallardo
  8. MFFrancisco Maidana
  9. MFFrancisco Molina
  10. FWOctavio Bianchi
  11. FWMauro Cachi
Came on (2)
  1. FWCristian Menéndez31′
  2. FWAbel Argañaraz15′

Atlanta

  1. GKJuan Rago
  2. DFJavier Ostachuk
  3. DFMartín García
  4. DFRodrigo Sosa56′
  5. DFRodrigo Moreira
  6. MFFrancisco Romero
  7. MFTomás Castro
  8. MFBraian Rivero73′
  9. MFChristian Bernardi46′
  10. FWAlejandro Quintana
  11. FWFederico Álvarez15′
Came on (4)
  1. FWIgnacio Rodríguez75′
  2. MFFranco Cáceres17′
  3. DFDylan Argüello34′
  4. MFJeremías Puch44′

Form

Gimnasia Jujuy

  • 18.10away · Nueva Chicago1:0
  • 11.10Gimnasia y Tiro2:2
  • 03.10away · Temperley1:2
  • 28.09San Martín de Tucumán2:2
  • 20.09away · Deportivo Maipú1:1

Atlanta

  • 17.10away · Gimnasia y Tiro1:3
  • 11.10San Martín de Tucumán1:0
  • 04.10away · Atlético Rafaela3:2
  • 27.09Agropecuario1:0
  • 21.09away · Tristán Suárez0:0

Head to head

  • 06.06.2026Atlanta — Gimnasia Jujuy3:0
  • 01.10.2023Gimnasia Jujuy — Atlanta2:0
  • 23.05.2023Atlanta — Gimnasia Jujuy1:2

Full record: 4 meetings →

Next matches

  • San Martín San JuanGimnasia Jujuy31 October · Primera Nacional
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
  • AtlantaCA Ferrocarril Midland31 October · Primera Nacional
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.3

Primera Nacional on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →