Primera Nacional, round 35 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Municipal Eva Perón
Ciudad de Bolívar — Colón
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In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Ciudad de Bolívar to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.
Ciudad de Bolívar are slightly stronger: 42% against 26%, draw 32%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Ciudad de Bolívar are 65 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Ciudad de Bolívar: 4 wins in a row; Colón: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ciudad de Bolívar — Colón What is xG? | 1.2–0.9 | |
| Ciudad de Bolívar not to lose | 74% | |
| Colón not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 37% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 63% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ciudad de Bolívar
- Ciudad de Bolívar goals
- Colón goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Match events
- 13′Agustín Paredes · Ciudad de Bolívar
- 29′Nahuel Yeri · Ciudad de Bolívar
- 34′Facundo Mucignat · Ciudad de Bolívar
- 46′Ignacio Lago · Colón0:1
- 68′Agustín Toledo · Colón
- 83′Axel Carrión · Ciudad de Bolívar
- 87′Agustín Toledo · Colón0:2
Substitutions (5)
- 7′Darío Sarmiento ↔ Franco García · Colón
- 46′Tobías Fernández ↔ Facundo Mucignat · Ciudad de Bolívar
- 46′Khalil Caraballo ↔ Agustín Paredes · Ciudad de Bolívar
- 64′Emanuel Beltrán ↔ Darío Sarmiento · Colón
- 68′Francisco Ilarregui ↔ Tomás Guiacobini · Ciudad de Bolívar
Lineups
Ciudad de Bolívar
- GKAgustín Rufinetti
- DFAxel Carrión
- DFAgustín Paredes46′
- DFElías Martínez
- DFFederico Peralta
- MFTomás Guiacobini68′
- MFNahuel Yeri
- MFMaximiliano Gutiérrez
- FWGuillermo Sánchez
- FWFacundo Mucignat46′
- FWAgustín Díaz
Came on (3)
- FWKhalil Caraballo44′
- DFTobías Fernández44′
- FWFrancisco Ilarregui22′
Colón
- GKTomás Giménez
- DFFederico Rasmussen
- DFMauro Peinipil
- DFNicolás Thaller
- DFFacundo Castet
- MFAgustín Toledo
- MFFederico Lértora
- FWFranco García7′
- FWJulián Marcioni
- FWIgnacio Lago
- FWAlan Bonansea
Came on (2)
- DFEmanuel Beltrán26′
- MFDarío Sarmiento57′
Form
- 17.10away · CA San Miguel2:1
- 12.10San Telmo1:0
- 03.10away · Acassuso1:0
- 26.09CA Chaco For Ever2:1
- 19.09away · Ferro Carril Oeste0:1
- 18.10Almirante Brown2:2
- 11.10away · Club Atlético Mitre0:0
- 03.10Club Atlético Estudiantes1:0
- 26.09away · All Boys0:0
- 20.09Los Andes3:0
Head to head
- 07.06.2026Colón — Ciudad de Bolívar0:0
Next matches
- Deportivo MorónCiudad de Bolívar31 October · Primera Nacional6125151The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.4
- ColónCA Defensores de Belgrano1 November · Primera Nacional5728151The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 6721121The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 6026141The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 4032281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 5628161The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 5326211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 5129201The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 6325121The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 4831211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →