Primera Nacional, round 35 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio de Colegiales
Colegiales — Atlético Rafaela
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1:1Missed
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Colegiales to win (60%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 60% fails in about 40 matches out of 100 on average.
Colegiales are clear favourites: 60% against 14% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Colegiales are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Colegiales are 191 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Colegiales: unbeaten in 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Colegiales — Atlético Rafaela What is xG? | 1.6–0.7 | |
| Colegiales not to lose | 86% | |
| Atlético Rafaela not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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- Handicap Colegiales
- Colegiales goals
- Atlético Rafaela goals
- Corners and cards
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Match events
- 18′Esteban Pepino · Atlético Rafaela
- 34′Agustín Obando · Atlético Rafaela
- 37′Fernando Ponce · Atlético Rafaela0:1
- 40′Lucas Albertengo · Atlético Rafaela
- 43′Joel Bonifacio · Atlético Rafaela
- 60′Facundo Rivero · Colegiales
- 75′Juan Capurro · Atlético Rafaela
- 83′Nicolás Toloza · Colegiales1:1
Substitutions (9)
- 46′Rodrigo Monserrat ↔ Leonardo González · Colegiales
- 46′Lucas Juárez ↔ Facundo Montiel · Colegiales
- 46′Alexis Rodríguez ↔ Joel Bonifacio · Atlético Rafaela
- 46′Juan Capurro ↔ Esteban Pepino · Atlético Rafaela
- 57′Juan Cavallaro ↔ Agustín Obando · Atlético Rafaela
- 60′Franco Zicarelli ↔ Enzo Trinidad · Colegiales
- 72′Nicolás Toloza ↔ Mauro Albertengo · Colegiales
- 79′Mateo Mamani ↔ Lucio Castillo · Colegiales
- 79′Roque Ramírez ↔ Lucas Albertengo · Atlético Rafaela
Lineups
Colegiales
- GKEmilio Di Fulvio
- DFFacundo Rivero
- DFLeonel Alejandro Ortiz
- DFFranco Malagueño
- MFElías Ocampo
- MFFederico Marín
- MFEnzo Trinidad60′
- MFFacundo Montiel46′
- FWLucio Castillo79′
- FWMauro Albertengo72′
- FWLeonardo González46′
Came on (5)
- FWMateo Mamani11′
- MFFranco Zicarelli30′
- FWRodrigo Monserrat44′
- FWNicolás Toloza18′
- MFLucas Juárez44′
Atlético Rafaela
- GKMayco Bergia
- DFLeonardo Flores
- DFUlises Yegros
- DFFernando Ponce
- DFEnzo Wuattier
- MFAgustín Obando57′
- MFNahuel Cainelli
- MFFacundo Soloa
- MFEsteban Pepino46′
- FWLucas Albertengo79′
- FWJoel Bonifacio46′
Came on (4)
- MFJuan Cavallaro33′
- FWAlexis Rodríguez44′
- DFRoque Ramírez11′
- MFJuan Capurro44′
Form
- 17.10away · Agropecuario3:0
- 10.10Tristán Suárez0:0
- 04.10away · Atlético Güemes1:0
- 27.09Chacarita Juniors2:1
- 20.09away · San Martín San Juan0:2
- 17.10Quilmes1:0
- 10.10away · CA Ferrocarril Midland0:4
- 04.10Atlanta2:3
- 28.09away · Gimnasia y Tiro0:1
- 19.09San Martín de Tucumán4:2
Head to head
- 06.06.2026Atlético Rafaela — Colegiales1:0
Next matches
- San Martín de TucumánColegiales2 November · Primera Nacional4929221The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- Atlético RafaelaPatronato de Parana2 November · Primera Nacional4731221The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.1
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 6721121The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 4232261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.0
- 4032281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 5628161The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 5326211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 5129201The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 6325121The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 4831211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →