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Primera Nacional, round 35 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Abel Sastre

Deportivo Madryn — San Telmo

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Model prediction and result

4:1Came true
Deportivo Madryn67%
Draw21%
San Telmo12%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Deportivo Madryn to win (67%), came true.

Deportivo Madryn are clear favourites: 67% against 12% for the opponent, draw 21%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.5 in total, against a competition average of 1.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 41%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Deportivo Madryn are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
  • Deportivo Madryn are 236 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 3 meetings: Deportivo Madryn 1 win, San Telmo 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Deportivo Madryn — San Telmo What is xG?1.8–0.7
Deportivo Madryn not to lose88%
San Telmo not to lose33%
No draw79%
Both teams to score: yes41%
Both teams to score: no59%
Total over 2.546%
Total under 2.554%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Deportivo Madryn
  • Deportivo Madryn goals
  • San Telmo goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 13′Martín González · San Telmo
  2. 14′Elías Brítez · San Telmo
  3. 34′Marcelo Meli · Deportivo Madryn1:0
  4. 43′Luis Silba · Deportivo Madryn2:0
  5. 46′Fernando Bersano · Deportivo Madryn3:0
  6. 65′Gabriel Paredes · San Telmo3:1
  7. 78′Alejandro Gutiérrez · Deportivo Madryn
  8. 82′Luis Silba · Deportivo Madryn4:1
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Rodrigo Dinocco ↔ Martín Batallini · San Telmo
  2. 60′Juan Peinipil ↔ Ezequiel Montagna · Deportivo Madryn
  3. 60′Nicolás Servetto ↔ Fernando Bersano · Deportivo Madryn
  4. 60′Estanislao Jara ↔ Leonardo Marinucci · Deportivo Madryn
  5. 60′Gabriel Paredes ↔ Patricio Romero · San Telmo
  6. 60′Javier Iritier ↔ Jerónimo Porto · San Telmo
  7. 65′Cristian Núñez ↔ Nicolás Molina · San Telmo
  8. 65′Iñaki Larthirigoyen ↔ Juan Motroni · San Telmo
  9. 76′Julián Cosi ↔ Agustín Sosa · Deportivo Madryn
  10. 83′Diego Martínez ↔ Lucas Diarte · Deportivo Madryn

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Deportivo Madryn

  1. GKYair Bonnín
  2. DFClaudio Corvalán
  3. DFFernando Bersano60′
  4. DFLucas Diarte83′
  5. DFAlejandro Gutiérrez
  6. DFAgustín Sosa76′
  7. MFEzequiel Montagna60′
  8. MFMarcelo Meli
  9. MFLeonardo Marinucci60′
  10. MFFederico Recalde
  11. FWLuis Silba
Came on (5)
  1. FWNicolás Servetto30′
  2. FWJuan Peinipil30′
  3. FWEstanislao Jara30′
  4. DFJulián Cosi14′
  5. DFDiego Martínez7′

San Telmo

  1. GKJoaquín Enrico
  2. DFFacundo Roncaglia
  3. DFMartín González
  4. DFJuan Motroni65′
  5. DFPatricio Romero60′
  6. DFEmanuel Díaz
  7. DFLázaro Britez
  8. MFElías Brítez
  9. FWNicolás Molina65′
  10. FWMartín Batallini46′
  11. FWJerónimo Porto60′
Came on (5)
  1. DFGabriel Paredes30′
  2. MFJavier Iritier30′
  3. MFCristian Núñez25′
  4. FWIñaki Larthirigoyen25′
  5. DFRodrigo Dinocco44′

Form

Deportivo Madryn

  • 17.10away · Acassuso0:0
  • 11.10CA Chaco For Ever1:2
  • 03.10away · Ferro Carril Oeste2:0
  • 27.09Central Norte0:0
  • 20.09Racing de Córdoba2:0

San Telmo

  • 19.10CA Defensores de Belgrano0:0
  • 12.10away · Ciudad de Bolívar0:1
  • 04.10Almirante Brown3:2
  • 27.09away · Club Atlético Mitre2:0
  • 19.09Club Atlético Estudiantes0:1

Head to head

  • 07.06.2026San Telmo — Deportivo Madryn0:0
  • 15.09.2024Deportivo Madryn — San Telmo1:0
  • 28.04.2024San Telmo — Deportivo Madryn2:1

Full record: 4 meetings →

Next matches

  • CA San MiguelDeportivo Madryn31 October · Primera Nacional
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.3
  • San TelmoCentral Norte31 October · Primera Nacional
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0

Primera Nacional on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →