Brazilian Serie B, round 38 · Saturday, 14 November, 22:30 (UTC+3)

América-MG — Avaí

Model prediction for 14 November

América-MG46%

Draw28%

Avaí26%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

América-MG are clear favourites: 46% against 26% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

By the strength ratings América-MG are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
América-MG are 56 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: América-MG — No. 19, 26 pts; Avaí — No. 17, 37 pts. A gap of 11 pts.
América-MG: 3 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: América-MG 1 win, Avaí 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: América-MG — Avaí What is xG?		1.4–1.0
América-MG not to lose		74%
Avaí not to lose		54%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		51%
Both teams to score: no		49%
Total over 2.5		48%
Total under 2.5		52%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap América-MG
América-MG goals
Avaí goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	América-MG	Avaí
Goals scored per match	0.7	0.5
Goals conceded per match	1.0	1.2
xG per match	1.12	0.88
Opponents’ xG	1.46	1.08
Shots	12.4	13.6
On target	3.8	3.7
Corners	4.3	5.8
Cards	2.2	3.4
Possession, %	47	46

Averages per match: América-MG — the last 10, Avaí — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

América-MG

01.11away · Londrina3:1
27.10Cuiabá1:0
18.10Operário-PR1:0
13.10away · Criciúma0:1
08.10Fortaleza0:1

Avaí

01.11away · Náutico0:1
24.10Botafogo SP0:2
18.10Athletic Club MG0:0
12.10away · Cuiabá1:0
08.10Londrina2:1

Head to head

22.07.2026Avaí — América-MG2:1
03.09.2025América-MG — Avaí2:0
27.04.2025Avaí — América-MG3:0
12.10.2024Avaí — América-MG2:2
26.06.2024América-MG — Avaí1:1

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
16	Ceará	36	11	10	15	38–46	-8	43
17, Relegation	Avaí	36	10	7	19	33–46	-13	37
18, Relegation	Londrina	36	8	8	20	45–54	-9	32
19, Relegation	América-MG	36	7	5	24	26–55	-29	26
20, Relegation	Ponte Preta	36	3	6	27	21–78	-57	15

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

22:30
Ponte PretaOperário-PRpreliminary
142363
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
22:30
São BernardoAthletic Club MGpreliminary
422930
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
22:30
LondrinaNáuticopreliminary
482627
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
22:30
FortalezaVila Novapreliminary
522821
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
22:30
Atlético-GOCuiabápreliminary
483022
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
22:30
CriciúmaNovorizontinopreliminary
453025
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
22:30
Sport RecifeGoiáspreliminary
472626
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
22:30
CRBCearápreliminary
652114
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →